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BTU researchers calculate that the value of Georgia’s passenger-car exports fell by USD 474.6 million in January–September 2026, while imports declined by USD 406.2 million. Reading National Bank and Geostat figures together shows that the challenge for car businesses combines weaker external sales with changes in supplier-country flows.

Key Takeaways

• BTU researchers calculate that Georgia’s passenger-car export value fell 23.7% year on year in January–September 2026, compared with a 13.3% decline in imports; the export contraction was approximately 10.4 percentage points faster.
• The National Bank of Georgia reports that the EU share of Georgia’s car import value fell from 34.9% to 15.3% in August 2026 compared with August 2025, a decline of 19.6 percentage points calculated by BTU.
• BTU researchers assess that Georgia’s 2026 car-trade figures require separate examination of supplier country, vehicle counts and declared value per vehicle: aggregate dollar turnover does not describe every trading corridor equally.

Georgia’s growing merchandise exports can obscure what is happening to its car businesses. Geostat’s October 19 release shows that total goods exports increased 19.6% in the first nine months of 2026. Over the same period, the value of the largest export product group, passenger cars, fell by almost a quarter. Rising aggregate exports therefore do not automatically mean better conditions for a dealer, vehicle transporter or workshop preparing cars for sale.

Car trading also involves more than buying and selling a vehicle. Imports require transport, documentation, sometimes repair, storage and delivery to the buyer. Georgian businesses can earn service revenue at these stages. Changes in external demand or supply routes can consequently affect a wider commercial chain, although customs statistics do not measure the exact revenue change at those businesses.

BTU’s analytical task is to separate a contraction in total car-trade value from the different trajectories of individual trading corridors. The new January–September release establishes the broader picture. The August figures in the National Bank’s October monthly review explain an important part of the changing supplier structure, while Geostat’s nine-month country tables provide examples with both values and vehicle counts. These periods remain distinct: August is a single month; January–September is a nine-month total.

External sales fall faster than imports

Passenger-car exports from Georgia amounted to approximately USD 2.004 billion in January–September 2025. In the same period of 2026, the figure fell to USD 1.529 billion. BTU calculates the difference at USD 474.6 million. Imports declined from USD 3.058 billion to USD 2.652 billion, a reduction of USD 406.2 million.

Georgia passenger-car trade January–September

Source: Geostat, October 19, 2026, pp. 9 and 13. Official values and changes; values shown in USD millions. 2026 figures are preliminary. Exports FOB, imports CIF.

The central comparison concerns the rates of decline. Export value fell 23.7%, while import value declined 13.3%. The outbound flow contracted more quickly. For the sector, this means that attention to the purchase price of incoming cars alone is insufficient: the external-sales side of the business has changed substantially.

The difference between imports and exports must not be read as unsold inventory. Some imported cars remain in Georgia, time passes between arrival and departure, and the vehicles entering and leaving during the same period are not an identical cohort. Valuation differs as well: exports are recorded on an FOB basis, while imports use CIF valuation, which includes the relevant freight and insurance components. Subtracting the annual dollar flows therefore does not reveal dealer profits, losses or the number of cars waiting to be sold.

A more useful question is whether purchasing volumes, vehicle specifications and intended destination markets remain aligned with weaker external sales. Falling imports could include businesses adapting their purchases, but the aggregate figures cannot establish that motive. The conclusion directly supported by the numbers is narrower and important: the dollar value of external sales is falling faster than the value of incoming cars.

Cars’ share of total exports also changed, from 38.9% in the first nine months of 2025 to 24.9% in 2026. That movement reflects both declining car exports and changes in other products. A smaller share does not mean the sector has become unimportant. Roughly one in four merchandise-export dollars still comes from this category. The sector therefore warrants attention in its own right, even when the national export headline is positive.

What the August picture adds

The National Bank’s October review isolates the effect of cars more clearly. Total merchandise exports increased 24.7% year on year in August 2026, but passenger cars contributed negative 10.3 percentage points to that change. Total imports increased 4.3%, while cars contributed negative 8.6 percentage points.

A percentage-point contribution describes a product’s effect on growth of the whole flow. Negative 10.3 points is not the percentage decline in car exports themselves. Put simply, growth in other goods more than offset the negative contribution from cars and kept total exports growing. This explains how a positive national headline and difficult conditions in a major sector can coexist.

The review links lower exports to Central Asian countries to declining passenger-car re-exports. Re-export means shipping out goods that were previously imported. It differs from exporting Georgian-made products, while the services associated with re-exporting can still generate revenue for local businesses.

Supplier flows were changing too. The EU share of total car imports fell from 34.9% in August 2025 to 15.3% in August 2026. BTU calculates a decline of 19.6 percentage points. The NBG also reports lower expenditure on imports from the United States because of falling car imports, while passenger-car imports from Japan increased. Sector-wide weakness therefore does not imply that every supply corridor was shrinking.

A car imported from an EU country is not automatically the same statistical category as a European-brand car. The recorded partner country does not by itself identify the vehicle’s brand, country of manufacture or powertrain. These figures cannot establish a shift away from a particular brand or prove that buyers are switching to electric vehicles.

Vehicle counts explain what dollar values cannot

Geostat’s latest release allows values and quantities to be compared for two named supplier countries. Passenger-car imports from China rose from USD 40.4 million to USD 71.1 million over the first nine months. Vehicle counts increased from 4,520 to 7,443. Imports from Turkey moved in the opposite direction: value fell from USD 104.9 million to USD 44.5 million and counts from 2,422 to 1,313.

Two supplier corridors January–September 2025 and 2026

Source: Geostat, October 19, 2026, pp. 15–16. Values and counts are official; percentage changes and per-vehicle values are BTU calculations using the source table’s full displayed amounts. USD per vehicle is average declared import value, not a retail price. 2026 is preliminary.

BTU calculates that import value from China grew approximately 76.0%, while the number of cars increased 64.7%. The growth therefore cannot be explained only by more declared dollars per vehicle: more vehicles actually entered the country. Average declared import value rose from about USD 8,940 to USD 9,553 per car, an increase of 6.9%.

For Turkey, value fell 57.6%, while the number of vehicles declined 45.8%. Average declared value fell from about USD 43,323 to USD 33,859 per car, or 21.8%. The total dollar contraction thus combines fewer vehicles with a lower average value for the imported mix.

Average declared value is not a price index for an unchanged vehicle model. It changes with the balance between expensive and inexpensive cars, age, condition and other characteristics. A different mix of vehicles can move the average even when the price of a particular model does not change. The decline for imports from Turkey consequently does not mean that cars became 21.8% cheaper for Georgian consumers.

These two corridors do not represent the whole market. China accounted for approximately 2.7% of total passenger-car import value in January–September 2026, and Turkey for 1.7%. They are useful demonstrations of different movements, not evidence that China has replaced the EU. Establishing substitution would require all major partners over a common period, alongside vehicle characteristics and intended uses.

The implications for Georgian businesses

BTU researchers assess that the practical issue is matching purchases more closely to the market in which the vehicle will be sold. A cheaply purchased car does not guarantee a successful transaction if there is no suitable buyer at the destination. When export value contracts faster than imports, the reliability of the sales channel and the time required to sell become more important business questions.

Changing supplier flows can also change the services required. Different vehicle models, ages and conditions need different parts, diagnostics and preparation. Workshops’ opportunity lies in understanding the actual incoming mix. An increase in imports from a country cannot replace that knowledge: businesses need to know which vehicles are arriving and what work they require.

For transport businesses, a change in trading corridors matters, but national customs totals do not measure the workload of a particular carrier. A shrinking flow on one corridor and growth on another can mean different delivery times and costs. The statistical partner country also does not disclose every intermediate transport point. Logistics decisions therefore require operational information alongside customs values.

The financial issue is the time between paying for a vehicle and recovering the money through sale. A business may have already paid for acquisition and transport. If selling takes longer, capital remains tied up in goods for longer. The reviewed statistics do not establish the duration of such delays, but a contraction in exports provides a reason to examine this exposure carefully.

There is a further distinction when judging the sector’s economic importance. USD 1.529 billion of exports is not the income retained in Georgia. A substantial part of an imported vehicle’s value relates to its purchase; local economic contribution can arise from trading and associated services. Measuring that domestic value requires more than gross customs turnover.

The data do not predetermine the future of Georgia’s car businesses. Lower external sales are a serious signal, while individual supplier corridors follow different paths. The useful question is where demand is weakening, how supply is changing and which services continue to create economic value. BTU’s central conclusion is that neither the success of aggregate merchandise exports nor growth from a single supplier provides a sufficient diagnosis. Sales value, vehicle counts and the imported mix must be read together.

Questions and answers

Does a 23.7% decline mean 23.7% fewer cars were exported?

The figure measures the dollar value of January–September car exports. Without total export quantities and composition, the same percentage decline in vehicle numbers cannot be inferred.

Does growth from China mean China replaced Europe?

No. The China comparison covers nine months, while the EU share comparison concerns August year on year. A substitution claim requires all major suppliers and vehicle characteristics over the same period.

Is average declared import value a retail price?

No. It is import value divided by the number of vehicles. It reflects the composition of incoming vehicles and is not the price charged to Georgian consumers.

Can the import export difference be treated as unsold stock?

Not directly. Timing, domestic use and valuation differ between the flows. Establishing inventory requires suitable quantity and business-level information.