Main summary

BTU researchers calculate that intermediate goods accounted for approximately 69% of the net annual increase in the value of Georgia’s merchandise imports in September 2026. Crude oil’s leading role within that group shows why the purpose and composition of imports matter as much as the amount spent.

Key Takeaways

• Intermediate goods contributed 10.5 percentage points to Georgia’s 15.3% annual import growth in September 2026. BTU’s calculation puts their share of the net increase at approximately 69%, not their share of all imports.
• The National Bank of Georgia’s November 4 review attributes intermediate-import growth mainly to crude oil, while investment goods contributed −0.3 percentage points to total import growth.
• BTU’s analytical assessment is that Georgia should evaluate the domestic value created around larger trade flows; one month of merchandise values does not establish a broad production or investment boom.

Georgia imported more goods in September, but the increase does not tell a single economic story. A shipment crossing the border can end up on a shop shelf, enter a production process, expand future capacity or leave the country again. Each route has different consequences for domestic employment, prices and income. A larger import bill initially answers only a narrower question: did the recorded value of goods entering the country rise?

The National Bank of Georgia’s Monthly Review, published on November 4, makes these differences visible. Registered merchandise imports in September were USD 1,805.9 million, against exports of USD 731.5 million. Imports rose by 15.3% year on year and exports by 4.0%. These are September outcomes presented in a newly published analytical review, not November trade results. The review draws on Geostat data and also divides goods according to their economic use.

BTU’s calculation using that division identifies the central finding: intermediate goods generated more than two thirds of the net increase in imports. The report also states that crude oil principally drove growth within this group. Reading the result as proof of a broad industrial revival would therefore go too far. The evidence points to a more concentrated change whose benefits must ultimately appear in domestic economic activity.

What was bought and for what purpose

Intermediate goods are materials and components used in production. A raw material purchased by a manufacturer may be transformed into a finished product or consumed while another product is made. Investment goods generally remain useful for longer: a machine does not disappear after the first production batch. Consumer goods relate to final consumption. Separating these categories helps explain the economic purpose behind a flow of merchandise.

The categories are not a complete account of every purchaser’s activity. Trade statistics record types of goods; they do not automatically reveal the particular company, commercial terms or profit associated with their use. Imported fuel, for example, can serve different activities. A statistical category should not be confused with a business outcome already achieved. Bringing in a production input is one stage in a longer process.

September’s contrast is clear in the table. Intermediate goods made a larger positive contribution than consumer goods, while investment goods slightly reduced the total growth rate. That last observation does not measure total investment in Georgia. Construction, locally purchased equipment and other capital expenditure cannot all be captured by a monthly flow of imported investment goods. The table establishes neither an investment crisis nor an investment boom.

Composition of Georgia’s import growth in September

Period: September 2026 versus September 2025. pp means percentage points. Source: Geostat, NBG November Monthly Review, pp. 7–8. Category contributions are official figures; the 68.6% share of the net increase is BTU’s calculation.

These figures are contributions to the annual growth of total imports, not the growth rates of the individual categories. Dividing 10.5 percentage points by 15.3 yields approximately 68.6%. Rounded for readability, 69% means that roughly 69 dollars of every hundred dollars of net additional import value were attributable to this category. It does not mean that 69 dollars of every hundred spent on all imports purchased intermediate goods.

The three contributions add to the overall growth rate of 15.3%. That reconciliation confirms the arithmetic, not the economic explanation. Understanding why the category increased requires examining its contents. The central bank specifically identifies crude oil. Crude oil represented 8.0% of total merchandise imports in September. A large contribution to a change can coexist with a much smaller share of the total: a rapidly changing component can have a substantial influence on the movement of an aggregate.

Larger imports and domestic benefits

Importing raw materials can create opportunities for Georgia when genuine economic activity develops around them. Processing, storage, transport, technical services and distribution may generate local income. Yet the scale of an opportunity and the benefit already realised are different questions. The full value registered at the border cannot all be treated as income created in Georgia, because it includes the value of goods produced abroad.

The useful question is how much value remains in the country after imported inputs are processed or otherwise used. Domestic value can emerge through workers’ compensation, local services and the results of business activity. Measuring it requires appropriate company and sector data. Adding imports and exports together does not answer that question; it can give the movement of the same merchandise an exaggerated appearance of economic benefit.

Intermediate goods also mattered on the export side in September. They contributed 4.5 percentage points to total annual export growth, whereas the aggregate increased by 4.0%. Negative contributions from investment and consumer goods reduced the final result. The review identifies precious-metal ores and mineral fertilisers among the sources of intermediate-export growth. That picture includes products and activities distinct from the main driver of intermediate imports.

Growth in intermediate goods on both sides of the border therefore does not establish a single production chain. Linking imported inputs to exported products requires matching companies, commodity codes and timing. The current review does not establish that connection for every flow. More domestic processing is an important opportunity, but demonstrating it takes evidence more precise than the simultaneous growth of aggregate trade categories.

Prices and quantities move differently

An increase in dollar-denominated imports can reflect more goods, higher prices or a shift towards more expensive products. Under Geostat’s methodology, import values also include freight and insurance costs up to Georgia’s border. A higher bill therefore does not simply represent additional tonnes delivered to a factory or additional units sold in a shop. Businesses need to distinguish rising procurement costs from expanding physical activity.

The review includes a real-growth measure that accounts for price changes. Excluding passenger-car re-exports, annual nominal import growth was 25.9%, while real growth was 13.7%. The contrast reinforces the distinction between money values and volumes. These figures concern a specifically restricted aggregate. The 13.7% cannot be applied to all imports or interpreted as the separate change in crude-oil quantities.

The merchandise deficit also needs a precise reading. September’s difference between exports and imports was −USD 1,074.4 million. This is the balance of registered merchandise trade. It does not incorporate the full result of services trade and is not the country’s complete current-account deficit. Tourism and other service receipts have their own accounting treatment. The merchandise number alone cannot determine the future exchange rate of the lari.

Who should pay attention

For manufacturers, the composition of imports is a starting point for assessing demand and costs. More raw materials may imply a need for particular products, warehousing or transport. But another company’s larger purchases do not automatically become new orders for every producer. A concrete opportunity depends on whether a business is connected to the flow, has the relevant capabilities and can provide a service competitively.

For logistics and service providers, large shipments and a stable market are also different things. An unusually large consignment can arrive in one month, followed by a different volume in the next. One strong monthly observation cannot alone justify a permanent increase in fixed costs. A more durable basis would include movements over several periods, agreed customer volumes and clear payment terms. Those are business assessments, not guarantees supplied by a trade release.

For consumers, the connection runs through final prices, but the transmission is not mechanical. A company can absorb some input costs in its margin, offset them through productivity or pass them into selling prices. The outcome depends on competition, contracts and demand. A larger import bill consequently provides no ready-made percentage forecast for future retail inflation. Assessing prices requires current evidence for the products concerned.

For economic policy, the composition makes a discussion of growth quality more concrete. When more raw materials enter the country, the relevant question is whether the domestic environment enables firms to turn them into products with greater value. Reliable infrastructure, energy supply, skilled workers and predictable rules are conditions for exploiting the opportunity. One month of trade does not measure the quality of these conditions, but it shows why the flow of merchandise and the domestic outcome should be evaluated separately.

BTU’s assessment is that this distinction defines September’s result. Import growth was concentrated in intermediate goods and, within that group, principally in crude oil. The valuable next outcome for Georgia would be additional domestic income, productivity and sustained export activity associated with these flows. A rising trade bill can indicate the beginning of that process. Establishing its completed economic result requires evidence on production, costs and employment.

Questions and answers

Does 69% mean most imports are raw materials?

No. The figure is intermediate goods’ share of September’s net annual increase in import value. Their share of the total import bill is a separate measure.

Can we conclude that investment declined?

A negative contribution from imported investment goods does not measure total investment. That conclusion would require broader evidence.

Why are higher imports not automatically harmful?

Imported materials can be inputs into domestic production. The outcome depends on their use and the additional value generated in Georgia.

Does the goods deficit forecast the lari exchange rate?

No. Merchandise trade is one part of external economic relations and cannot alone establish the future direction of the exchange rate.