Main finding

BTU researchers calculate that coke and refined petroleum products accounted for approximately 64.4% of Georgia’s 6.8% annual increase in import prices in September 2026. That concentration identifies the main component of the pressure, but it does not mean that every imported product or retail fuel price in Georgia rose at the same rate.

Key takeaways

• Coke and refined petroleum product prices rose 75.4% year on year in September and contributed 4.38 percentage points to overall import price growth; BTU calculates that this represents approximately 64.4% of the total 6.8% increase.
• All remaining components together contributed 2.42 percentage points. This residual is neither a recalculated import inflation rate excluding petroleum products nor their share of the value of imports.
• The annual index for electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning was 1,988.0, but its contribution to overall growth was only 0.29 percentage points. A large change within a group and a large effect on the aggregate are different things.

A single import price figure can easily create the impression that prices rose by roughly the same amount across imported goods. September’s data tell a different story. Increases appear in several categories, but one specific division accounts for most of the overall movement. For Georgia, the relevant question is therefore not simply how much imports became more expensive, but where that change is concentrated and how it might affect business costs.

According to Geostat’s release dated 20 October, the import price index increased by 1.1% in September 2026 compared with August and by 6.8% compared with September 2025. The first figure describes a one-month change; the second compares prices with twelve months earlier. They should not be added or treated as interchangeable measures. September is the reference period and October the publication month. [1]

Where the increase is concentrated

The annual index for coke and refined petroleum products was 175.4, with the same month of the previous year set to 100. This means an increase of 75.4%. For the aggregate, however, the second number is particularly revealing: this division contributed 4.38 percentage points to annual import price growth. A percentage-point contribution describes how much of the overall 6.8% increase is attributed to a component.

BTU researchers calculate that dividing 4.38 by 6.8 and multiplying by 100 gives approximately 64.4%. Almost two-thirds of the annual import price increase was therefore associated with one division. The calculation measures the concentration of price growth, not petroleum products’ share of total import expenditure. A sharp price change can generate a large contribution without the product accounting for an equally large share of import value.

Import prices and annual growth contributions September 2026

Source: Geostat, 20 October 2026, p. 1. Annual changes calculated by subtracting the base of 100 from published indices; contributions are official. pp means percentage points. The two divisions are included in manufactured products and are not added again. 0.00 is rounded. [1]

Manufactured products as a whole rose 6.2% year on year and contributed 6.04 percentage points. Petroleum products are already included in that section. Adding 6.04 and 4.38 would count the same movement twice. Likewise, the 0.49-point contribution from computers, electronic and optical products is part of manufacturing, not a separate additional section on top of it. [1]

The story does not end with petroleum. Prices for computers, electronic and optical products rose 8.0%. Mining and quarrying prices increased 10.9%, contributing 0.47 percentage points to the aggregate. Prices in water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation services fell 1.5%, while the published contribution rounded to 0.00. That rounded zero does not mean the group’s prices were unchanged.

Subtracting petroleum products’ 4.38 points from the total 6.80 leaves a combined contribution of 2.42 percentage points from the remaining components. This is the second important result: the rest of the basket also adds to growth, but does not account for the majority. Calling 2.42 “import inflation excluding petroleum products” would be misleading because a separate index would require a redefined basket and weights for the remaining goods.

Why a large percentage is not a large contribution

Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning provide a particularly clear illustration. The published annual index is 1,988.0. With a comparison base of 100, that corresponds to a 1,888.0% increase, not a 1,988% increase. Yet its contribution to overall import price growth is 0.29 percentage points, far below that of petroleum products.

A group’s own price change describes movement within that group; its contribution describes its role in the weighted total. The two-page release does not establish the specific reason for this exceptional annual change. We therefore do not reconstruct an exact weight or infer an increase in a particular Georgian electricity contract or tariff.

The historical chart on the second page supplies useful context. It labels the annual index at 100.6 in January 2026, 106.3 in May, 102.3 in July and 106.8 in September. These correspond to annual growth of 0.6%, 6.3%, 2.3% and 6.8%. The movement was not uniform: September’s annual rate was higher than July’s relatively low reading. The chart shows year-on-year comparisons, not the direct month-on-month price changes in each of those months. [1]

From the border to business costs

The import price index does not measure the price paid in a shop or at a filling station. Geostat observes CIF prices, covering the product and delivery to Georgia’s border. Its official questionnaire requests prices in Georgian lari. The index should therefore be read neither as an index solely of foreign prices in US dollars nor as a change stripped of exchange-rate effects. [2,3]

Understanding that boundary changes the practical interpretation. An imported petroleum price is closer to a supplier’s acquisition cost than to the final customer’s price. Existing inventories, supply agreements, domestic distribution expenses and commercial margins can matter further along the chain. This describes a possible transmission mechanism, not an effect measured for September: the release cannot establish how much reached the retail price of a particular grade of petrol or diesel.

The same distinction matters for transport, distribution and fuel-using production. If the fuel a business actually purchases becomes more expensive, the relevant expense may rise. Fuel is nevertheless only one part of total costs and its importance differs across activities. The division’s 75.4% annual increase cannot therefore be translated into an equal rise in freight rates or a common percentage increase in every Georgian company’s costs.

For an importer with a different product mix, the 8.0% increase in computers, electronic and optical products may be more relevant. Even that is a group-level measure, not the price of a particular model, supplier or contract. The aggregate index describes the economic environment; an individual decision requires comparison of the relevant product and actual purchasing terms.

What concentration changes

BTU researchers assess that September’s most useful lesson is the need to identify price pressure at the relevant product level. When almost two-thirds of the increase is concentrated in one division, expecting all imported goods to become equally expensive distorts the evidence. Attention should focus first on that division’s acquisition prices and its connections to the businesses that use those products, without ignoring the remaining 2.42-point contribution.

Concentration also matters when interpreting subsequent developments. Further petroleum price movements could have an important effect on the aggregate, but September’s share is no guarantee of the share in future months. Other product prices, comparison bases and purchasing conditions change. The calculation is neither a forecast of continuing inflation nor a promise of a rapid reversal.

The answer to the headline question is therefore specific: coke and refined petroleum products were the principal component of September’s annual import price increase. For Georgian businesses, the value of the finding lies in distinguishing different cost pressures behind an average. For consumers, the essential boundary remains the same: a recorded increase at the border and the final purchase price are not the same measure.

Questions and answers

What does 64.4 percent measure?

It is the ratio of coke and refined petroleum products’ 4.38-point contribution to the total 6.8% annual import price increase. It is neither the division’s share of import value nor its own rate of price growth.

Would inflation excluding petroleum products be 2.42 percent?

The 2.42 percentage points are the remaining components’ contribution to the published aggregate change. A separate index excluding petroleum would require different weights.

Why is the energy group contribution only 0.29 points?

A large within-group increase does not imply an equally large effect on the whole basket. The release supplies the contribution, but not an exact weight or an explanation for the exceptional annual change.

Does this mean retail fuel became 75.4 percent more expensive?

No. The 75.4% figure is an annual price change for a particular import division. Retail fuel prices and final business costs require additional evidence.