Key Takeaway

Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is accelerating a broader return of overland trade routes across the Middle East. For Georgia, the important implication is not that land transport will replace shipping. It is that global supply chains increasingly value redundancy: companies want several routes that can keep operating when one corridor is disrupted.

That strengthens the strategic logic of the Middle Corridor, which links Central Asia and China to Europe through the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Türkiye and the Black Sea. But it also creates competition, because new Gulf–Türkiye–Europe and Iran–Central Asia routes may bypass Georgia.

Georgia’s transport system is already seeing record volumes

In January–July 2026, Georgian seaports and terminals handled 11.7 million tonnes of cargo, 24% more than a year earlier. Container throughput reached 484.4 thousand TEU, up 8%. Georgian Railway transported 8.3 million tonnes, an 11% increase, while transit freight grew 12%.

Geostat reports that turnover in transportation and storage reached GEL 3.5 billion in the second quarter of 2026, compared with GEL 2.7 billion a year earlier.

Calculations by BTU researchers

The calculations show how much additional physical volume sits behind the growth rates. Georgian ports handled roughly 2.27 million more tonnes in the first seven months of 2026 than in the comparable period a year earlier, while rail carried roughly 0.82 million more tonnes.

Why Middle Eastern disruption can strengthen Georgia

The first reason is diversification. When companies reduce dependence on a single route, alternatives such as the Middle Corridor become more valuable. Georgia can capture more traffic moving between Central Asia, the Caspian region, China, Türkiye and Europe.

The second reason is Türkiye. The Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway entered full-scale operation in June 2026, strengthening the land connection from Georgia toward Türkiye and Europe.

The third reason is the Black Sea. Georgia can combine rail and road corridors with maritime links to Europe, giving cargo owners several ways to move west.

But the new land routes are competitors too

The same Middle Eastern shift that helps Georgia is creating alternatives. Gulf countries are exploring routes through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and Türkiye. Iran is strengthening links toward Afghanistan and Central Asia. Some future cargo may therefore have no reason to pass through Georgia.

Geography alone is not enough. Corridors compete on transit time, price, border procedures, reliability and how smoothly cargo moves between national systems.

Capacity may become the constraint

Georgia’s Ministry of Economy has said existing port infrastructure is operating at very high utilisation. Rising demand becomes an advantage only if the system can absorb it.

That makes Anaklia deep-sea port, railway modernisation, full utilisation of Baku–Tbilisi–Kars and better port access increasingly important. If cargo growth meets queues, border delays or rail bottlenecks, geographic advantage can disappear quickly.

A broader corridor strategy

The Middle Eastern reconfiguration extends beyond roads and rail. New terrestrial fibre-optic routes are being developed as alternatives to vulnerable undersea cables. The same logic matters for Georgia: a future transit hub can move not only containers, but also energy and data.

Georgia’s long-term corridor strategy can therefore become broader than transport infrastructure alone.

Conclusion

The return of overland trade routes shows that global commerce increasingly values reliability alongside cost. That gives Georgia’s location additional value.

BTU calculations show that the Georgian transport system is already operating at a much higher level: ports handled about 2.27 million additional tonnes, rail carried roughly 0.82 million additional tonnes, and transportation-and-storage turnover grew by about 29.6% year on year.

But geography is only an opportunity. Turning it into durable economic value requires capacity, fast borders, coordinated digital systems and competitive logistics services. If Georgia succeeds, it can become one of the resilient trade nodes connecting Europe and Asia.

Data and Main Sources

The Economist – As the Iran war menaces shipping, land routes are making a comeback, 2026; Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia – 2026 transport-sector, Anaklia and Middle Corridor updates; Georgian Railway – 2026 freight indicators; Geostat – Transportation and Storage; External Merchandise Trade.

Prepared by the academic team of Business and Technology University and the BTUAI Research Team, Tbilisi, Georgia.