Main summary

BTU researchers calculate that Georgia’s net electricity imports-imports minus exports-rose by approximately 55% in January–August 2026, even though the import total in GeoStat’s table fell by 23%. Transit flows recorded in the previous year explain much of this apparent contradiction: less electricity entering Georgia’s borders did not mean a smaller net inflow of electricity from abroad.

Three key takeaways

• Georgia’s net electricity imports increased: BTU’s aggregation of GeoStat’s table, updated on 28 October, shows 936.3 GWh in January–August 2026, approximately 55% above the 605.2 GWh recorded for the same months of 2025.
• Gross border flows differ from imports recorded for the domestic balance: ESCO separately identifies 422.2 GWh of transit in each direction during January–August 2025. Excluding transit, comparable electricity imports increased by approximately 6% in 2026 rather than falling by 23%.
• Businesses need the balance, not one percentage: BTU’s analytical assessment is that imports should be read alongside exports, domestic generation and the timing of supply. Changes in physical electricity flows do not, by themselves, establish a tariff increase or forecast an interruption in service.

GeoStat’s 28 October update presents an apparent contradiction. Electricity entering Georgia during the first eight months of 2026 was below the corresponding figure for the previous year. Read alone, that sounds like evidence that the country was meeting more of its needs from domestic resources. Yet electricity leaving the country fell by considerably more. The difference between incoming and outgoing flows consequently increased.[1]

That distinction matters beyond the energy industry. Electricity supply connects factory costs, hotel operations, shop refrigeration, digital services and ordinary household activity. A discussion built around the import percentage alone can miss what has changed across the system. Here, the economically useful finding is an accounting distinction behind the headline and a larger net inflow from abroad-not a simple story of reduced import dependence.

What the calculation reveals

Summing GeoStat’s monthly observations gives imports of 1,532.4 GWh and exports of 927.2 GWh for January–August 2025. The difference is 605.2 GWh. For the same months of 2026, imports were 1,179.3 GWh and exports 243.0 GWh, producing a difference of 936.3 GWh. One GWh equals one million kilowatt-hours. Every comparison here concerns physical energy, not expenditure in Georgian lari or US dollars.

BTU researchers calculate an increase in net imports of 331.1 GWh, or approximately 55%. The arithmetic can also be expressed through the changes on each side: incoming flows fell by 353.1 GWh, while outgoing flows fell by 684.2 GWh. Because the second reduction was larger, the net inflow increased. This describes the balance; it does not attribute the export decline to one particular cause.

Comparable electricity flows – Georgia, January–August; GWh

Sources: GeoStat and ESCO.[1–3] GeoStat rows are summed at the published monthly precision; ESCO figures are rounded to one decimal place. Small differences reflect different publication precision. Net imports are a derived measure; the other rows aggregate issuer observations.

Why separating transit changes the interpretation

Electricity in transit enters Georgia and subsequently leaves for another country. It is a genuine cross-border flow, but it needs to be distinguished from imports recorded for Georgia’s domestic balance. A reduction in transit can therefore reduce recorded inflows without reducing the import requirement associated with domestic use.

ESCO’s actual electricity balance makes that distinction visible. For the first eight months of 2025, the operator separately reports 422.198 million kWh of incoming transit and the same amount of outgoing transit. Its import row totals 1,110.095 million kWh. Adding the two reproduces GeoStat’s import aggregate within the precision of the rounded monthly observations. The same reconciliation works on the export side: ESCO’s 505.077 million kWh of exports plus transit closely matches GeoStat’s total.[2]

In ESCO’s January–August 2026 balance, both transit rows are zero. Imports excluding transit total 1,179.354 million kWh. BTU’s calculation therefore shows an approximately 6% increase in this comparable import measure. The word “imports” can cover different flows in different statistical presentations. Both tables can be valid while a comparison of their labels alone creates a misleading impression.[3]

Net imports offer a useful check in this particular case because equal incoming and outgoing transit flows cancel. Calculating the change from ESCO’s more detailed observations also gives approximately 55%. The central result is therefore not dependent on whether transit is presented separately. This does not make transit economically unimportant: transit services and domestic electricity supply are simply different questions.

Domestic generation and the importance of timing

GeoStat’s observations put total generation at 9,275.6 GWh in January–August 2025 and 9,175.9 GWh in the same months of 2026, a decrease of approximately 1%. Domestic supply rose from 9,504.0 GWh to 9,766.6 GWh, approximately 3%. Together, these movements explain why a lower gross import figure is insufficient evidence of an improved domestic position. Generation minus domestic supply should not, however, be mechanically equated with net trade: the electricity balance also contains the relevant stages for own use and losses.[1–3]

Generation composition provides further context. In GeoStat’s eight-month comparison, hydroelectric output fell by approximately 4%, while thermal generation increased by approximately 14%. Domestic generation is therefore a total assembled from sources moving in different directions. The volume table does not isolate how much of the hydroelectric change reflects water conditions, plant availability or other factors. That causal question requires appropriate operational evidence.

The differences between months are equally important. ESCO records imports of 576.293 GWh in January 2026 and 7.193 GWh in August. Generation, demand and export opportunities were not the same in those two months. An eight-month sum measures an accumulated outcome; it cannot establish the electricity available on a particular winter evening. Energy security consequently concerns more than the direction of an annual total. Supply must be available when consumers require it.

ESCO’s September figures are already available and were checked separately. The January–September comparison still shows higher net imports than a year earlier. This article keeps January–August as its main comparison because that is the period covered by GeoStat’s 28 October update. A recent publication date does not turn its observations into measurements of September or October consumption.

What this changes for business and economic decisions

BTU’s analytical assessment is that the principal practical improvement is to the question being asked. A smaller volume entering the national border is not, by itself, an adequate measure of progress. It matters how much electricity leaves, how much is generated domestically and how much merely passes through. Otherwise, reduced transit can be mistaken for an improvement in the domestic energy position.

For a manufacturer or hotel, the finding is not an instruction to change an existing electricity contract immediately. A national physical balance does not directly reveal an individual company’s price, service quality or future bill. The better conclusion is that energy-cost planning should not rest on the gross-import headline. Contract terms, the seasonality of the company’s own demand and the availability of supply during its busiest operating periods remain essential.

An energy investment faces a related question. Additional generation has economic value, but its value depends on timing and system needs. Annual kilowatt-hours alone cannot show whether a proposed project supplies scarce hours, reduces peak demand or adds output at times when other generators are already producing strongly. These data do not automatically favour one technology. They help identify the more useful investment question: how does additional output fit the demand that must actually be met?

For public policy, there is an opportunity in clearer reporting. Where transit is included in one table’s totals and separated in another, the explanation should be as visible as the percentage. That helps readers distinguish border activity from the domestic energy balance. Better interpretation cannot substitute for better policy outcomes, but it can prevent the wrong outcome from being declared.

Conclusion

The central lesson of the 28 October update is straightforward: lower gross electricity imports did not mean a lower net electricity inflow into Georgia. Once transit is separated and exports are considered, the picture reverses-net imports increased by approximately 55% in January–August. The useful measure is not one favourable percentage but a reconciled balance showing the energy Georgia needs, where it comes from and when it is required.

Questions and answers

What does net imports mean? Here it is the difference between the physical volumes of electricity imported and exported during the same period. A positive value means imports exceed exports.

How can imports fall by 23% while net imports rise by 55%? The first measure includes the previous year’s transit inflows. Exports also fell by more than imports. The difference between them therefore increased.

Does this mean electricity will become more expensive? Establishing a price effect requires purchase costs, contracts, regulatory conditions and other expenses alongside volumes. This calculation is not a tariff forecast.

Why use August when September is available? GeoStat’s 28 October release covers the period through August. ESCO’s September balance was checked separately and does not reverse the direction of the main finding; the periods are not mixed in one table.

Sources

[1] GeoStat – monthly electricity supply, updated 28 October 2026. [2] ESCO – actual electricity balance, 2025. [3] ESCO – actual electricity balance, 2026.