Birthrate Crisis: Global Demographic Shifts and Their Impact on Georgia

The 21st century sees the world entering a demographic transformation, the depth of which may turn out to be far greater than we ever imagined. A trend that began in the West — the rejection of cohabitation and family formation — is rapidly reshaping the demographic map. Marriage and having multiple children, once seen as societal norms, are losing their status every day, giving way to new life models associated, for many, with greater freedom and individual independence.

Taking the U.S. as an example, the country is currently at a historic low in birthrates: in 2024, the average number of children per woman was 1.7, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population. Alongside this, the number of single-person households is rising: in 2024 alone, there were 38.5 million single-person households in the U.S., accounting for 29% of all household units. For comparison, in 1974, this figure was only 19%.

These numbers are accompanied by social transformations. A large portion of people, especially among the youth, increasingly choose independence, freedom, career goals, and personal development. Many are not attracted to the idea of starting a family — or see it as something to postpone to the future. Women, who in the past viewed marriage as a mechanism for security, today feel much stronger with the ability to achieve career and financial stability on their own.

Such processes are not exclusive to the U.S. In 2023, the United Kingdom recorded its lowest birthrate at 1.4. Italy’s rate stands at 1.1, which the government already considers a “national emergency.” In Japan, the population has been declining for 15 years, while South Korea holds the world’s lowest fertility rate — 0.75 children per woman. In China, the number of marriages fell by 20% in 2023.

Alongside these trends in the West, there are cultural impulses particularly affecting Millennials and Generation Z. Popular television shows like Friends and Sex and the City portrayed the advantages of a free and independent lifestyle, where marriage and children were not seen as prerequisites for happiness. These cultural narratives helped modernize behavioral norms that continue to define social roles today.

Technology also plays a significant role. Social media and online relationships have altered traditional forms of social integration. Many people have become passive about forming relationships, further complicating the establishment of emotional connections with real people.

From an economic perspective, many young people study for longer periods, and issues like unemployment and low income hinder the start of independent living, often leading to a return to living with parents. As a result, marriage is no longer seen as a critical life step but rather as a luxury requiring financial strength. This further reinforces the narrative of independent living.

All of this social transformation ultimately leads to a radical change in demographic structures. Low birthrates directly create problems in labor markets, pension systems, and healthcare sectors. When the number of people of working age declines while the elderly population increases, a serious imbalance emerges — who will work, who will pay pensions, and who will care for the elderly? Thus, the world is partially returning to multi-generational living arrangements, driven by economic necessity.

This raises the question: what are countries doing about it? Many states have introduced incentive policies: childbirth bonuses, family support programs, improved parental leave, low-interest loans, tax benefits, and more. However, these approaches have had little effect. Some experts argue that a deep cultural shift is needed — society must regain a positive attitude toward having children. Without this, in the long term, many countries may face serious demographic degradation.

All of this is highly relevant for Georgia as well. Recent statistics confirm that Georgia’s birthrate is declining: in 2023, births were 25% lower than in 2016. The number of marriages is steadily decreasing, while divorces are increasing. Young people are emigrating en masse to improve their economic conditions, further accelerating the birthrate decline.

In 2024, according to data, the number of births in Georgia fell to around 44,000, nearing a historic low. At the same time, the average age of marriage has increased, and the age of first childbirth for women now exceeds 27–28 years. According to the National Statistics Office of Georgia, over the past decade, the number of single-person households has risen by almost 30%, while the share of large families in rural areas has sharply declined.

These figures are alarming for the country’s demographic sustainability. If the trend continues, Georgia’s population, already on a downward trajectory, could fall to 2.5 million by 2050 — implying increased migration rates, difficulty balancing social systems, and economic stagnation.

What solutions remain? On the one hand, real support programs from the government are essential — not just symbolic bonuses, but broad social policies that make family formation easier: affordable childcare facilities, inexpensive housing for young families, comprehensive maternity leave, and stable employment conditions. On the other hand, there must be a public dialogue on how to restore trust and social value in marriage and parenthood, without suppressing personal freedom but instead supporting it.

If Georgia does not respond in time, it will face not only demographic but also economic and socio-political upheavals. The era of singles, with its serenity and personal freedom, could turn into a potential demographic crisis for the country. It would be tragic if planning for the nation’s future is delayed until a time when there are neither children nor hope left.