Key Takeaway

The Financial Times reported on 6 October that merchant fleet operators are strengthening protective measures as attacks on commercial shipping become more frequent. The economic story extends well beyond physical damage to ships. Higher perceived risk can raise war-risk insurance, charter rates, voyage times and the cost of keeping crews and cargo moving through exposed corridors. The International Maritime Organization said that by 16 September it had verified 80 attacks on merchant vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz since 28 February, with at least 22 seafarers killed.

How security risk becomes a shipping cost

A sea voyage is priced through several layers: vessel ownership or charter cost, fuel, crew, port fees, insurance and time. When a route is reclassified as high risk, several of those components can move at once. Insurers charge more, shipowners may demand higher compensation, and rerouting can add fuel consumption and days at sea. The important point is that the cost of insecurity spreads through the entire logistics chain rather than remaining confined to the damaged vessel.

War-risk insurance provides the clearest measurable signal. Reuters reported on 23 July that indicative premiums for voyages through the southern Red Sea had risen from about 0.3% of vessel value a week earlier to more than 1%. In September, Reuters reported that premiums for Saudi-linked tankers calling at Yanbu were around 3%, while some ports closer to Yemen could attract quotes as high as 7%. Vessels without a Saudi connection were quoted at roughly 0.2-0.3% in the same broad market context.

What the 2026 numbers show

The market is therefore pricing geopolitical exposure with increasing precision. The IMO records the human and operational consequences of attacks, Reuters shows how quickly insurers reprice voyages, and UNCTAD documents the wider effect on freight, fuel and supply chains. These are different measures, but they point in the same direction: security shocks can become transport-cost shocks within days.

Table 1. Key indicators of maritime risk and shipping cost, 2026

Sources: IMO, Reuters, Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia. Insurance rates are indicative and vary by vessel and voyage.

A simple scenario illustrates the scale. According to calculations by BTU researchers, moving from a 0.3% premium to 1% is an increase of at least 3.3 times. For a hypothetical vessel insured at $50 million, a 0.3% premium equals $150,000, 1% equals $500,000 and 3% equals $1.5 million. This is not an estimate for a specific voyage; it is a transparent scenario showing how rapidly security risk can become a six- or seven-figure transport expense.

Insurance is only part of the bill

Rerouting can be just as important. UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport 2025 found that Red Sea disruptions and diversions around the Cape of Good Hope helped raise global ton-miles by about 17% in 2024. Longer journeys consume more fuel, occupy vessels for longer and reduce the effective supply of available shipping capacity. That creates upward pressure on charter costs even for cargo that is never directly attacked.

Why this matters for Georgia

Georgia is increasing its exposure to maritime trade because its ports are handling more cargo. According to the Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development, Georgian seaports and terminals handled 13.7 million tonnes in January-August 2026, 24% more than in the same period a year earlier. In January-July, container throughput reached 484,400 TEU, up 8% year on year. The country therefore has more to gain from maritime connectivity, but also more to lose from persistent increases in shipping risk.

Black Sea developments make the issue more immediate. Reuters reported on 6 October that two commercial ships were struck by drones in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone, with one vessel sinking. The origin of the drones had not been conclusively established at the time. Georgia also has growing direct ferry links with Bulgaria and Romania: the Ministry of Economy said traffic on those services rose 54% in the first half of 2026 and four vessels were operating regularly.

How higher shipping cost reaches the economy

Higher freight and insurance costs do not pass one-for-one into consumer prices. The effect depends on the value of the cargo, inventories, market competition and contractual arrangements. But long delays can matter. A 2026 IMF working paper estimated that an additional 100 hours of shipping delay raised consumer inflation by roughly 0.5 percentage points at its five-month peak in the data studied. That result should not be treated as a Georgia forecast, but it illustrates the transmission mechanism from ports to prices.

According to an assessment by BTU researchers, Georgia’s key exposure is not a single maritime incident but the possibility that security cost becomes structurally embedded in Black Sea logistics. If insurance, charter rates, voyage time and crew-related costs all rise together, low-margin cargo and price-sensitive transit flows can become more difficult to attract.

Where Georgia can build an advantage

Risk also increases the value of reliability. A corridor that can process ships quickly, transfer cargo efficiently to rail and road, digitise documentation and offer predictable customs and insurance procedures can partly offset the time cost created elsewhere. Georgia’s Ministry of Economy says the Maritime Single Window has reduced ship service time in ports from about 24 hours to around one hour. Faster administration cannot remove geopolitical risk, but it can improve the corridor’s overall competitiveness.

BTU Researchers’ Assessment

According to an assessment by BTU researchers, the defining feature of the drone era is that maritime security risk is translated into money faster than before. An attack does not need to occur on every voyage. Once insurers, shipowners and crews demand compensation for higher perceived risk, the entire corridor becomes more expensive. Security therefore becomes a permanent component of logistics strategy rather than a temporary crisis cost.

For Georgia, the Middle Corridor should be judged not only by tonnes moved or infrastructure capacity but also by resilience. Port efficiency, railway capacity, information sharing, insurance availability and alternative routing need to work as one system. As Black Sea cargo volumes grow, the economic value of predictability rises with them.

Conclusion

Shipping is getting more expensive in the drone era, but the largest cost is not simply defensive equipment. It is the combined effect of insurance repricing, longer voyages, tighter vessel capacity, crew risk and delays. The 2026 evidence shows that a security shock can reprice a shipping route in a matter of days.

For Georgia, that is both a risk and a strategic test. The country’s rising port throughput and expanding Black Sea links strengthen its role in regional trade, but they also increase exposure to maritime disruption. The Middle Corridor will be more competitive if Georgia can offer not only capacity, but reliable and predictable movement when global shipping conditions become less predictable.

Data and Main Sources

Financial Times – Shipping: Maritime threat: Merchant fleets bolster defences against drones, 6 October 2026
URL: https://www.ft.com/content/8da80a16-6c9c-4422-92e0-856c7df3d8bf
Dataset: No
International Maritime Organization – Stop attacking merchant ships and seafarers, 16 September 2026
URL: https://www.imo.org/en/mediacentre/pressbriefings/pages/stop-attacking-ships-and-seafarers-imo-secretary-general.aspx
Dataset: No

Reuters – War risk insurance costs surge for southern Red Sea voyages after Houthi attacks, 23 July 2026
URL: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/war-risk-insurance-costs-surge-southern-red-sea-voyages-after-houthi-attacks-2026-07-23/
Dataset: No
Reuters – Saudi oil export strategy hits new hurdle as Red Sea insurance costs soar, 24 September 2026
URL: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-oil-export-strategy-hits-new-hurdle-red-sea-insurance-costs-soar-2026-09-24/
Dataset: No

UN Trade and Development – Review of Maritime Transport 2025 and 2026 Hormuz monitoring; Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia – 2026 transport-sector releases; Reuters – Black Sea ship attacks, 6 October 2026.
Disclaimer: This material is analytical and educational. It does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice. Consult an appropriate specialist before making a specific decision.

Prepared by the academic team of Business and Technology University and the BTUAI Research Team, Tbilisi, Georgia.