Key Takeaway
In the first half of 2026, 50.4% of Georgia’s total merchandise exports still went to CIS countries. In other words, every second export dollar remained tied to post-Soviet markets. Yet the share was 69% a year earlier – a decline of 18.6 percentage points – while the share of other countries nearly doubled. The figure includes re-exports and therefore should not be read as the market distribution of goods produced in Georgia alone. The central story remains clear: Georgia’s export map is changing quickly, without a comparable expansion into the European Union.
Every Second Export Dollar Still Goes to Familiar Markets
For a Georgian wine producer, fruit exporter, mineral-water company or vehicle re-exporter, CIS markets often remain the easiest route abroad. Established distributors, cultural and language familiarity, shorter logistics and recognition of Georgian products lower the cost of entry.
According to Georgia’s National Statistics Office, CIS countries accounted for 50.4% of total merchandise exports in January–June 2026. The European Union accounted for 10%, and all other countries for 39.6%. These totals combine domestic exports and re-exports. They describe the overall geography of goods leaving Georgia, but do not by themselves show how much value was created inside the country. Even with this distinction, the data confirm that Georgia’s export system remains heavily oriented toward regional markets.
The country ranking makes the concentration tangible. Kyrgyzstan received USD 431.8 million in Georgian exports, Azerbaijan USD 335.9 million, Russia USD 332.0 million, Armenia USD 314.2 million and Kazakhstan USD 269.4 million. BTUAI’s independently double-checked calculation shows that these five CIS markets alone absorbed 43.4% of Georgia’s total exports.
Dependence Is Still High, but It Fell Sharply in One Year
The statement that half of Georgia’s exports still go to CIS markets is accurate, but it hides the speed of change. In the first half of 2025, the CIS share was 69%. By 2026 it had fallen to 50.4% – a decline of 18.6 percentage points.
The shift reflects different country dynamics. Exports to Kyrgyzstan fell by 36.6%, Kazakhstan by 34.9% and Azerbaijan by 1.8%; Russia was broadly unchanged, while Armenia increased by 27%. Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan are important re-export destinations, particularly for motor cars, and Georgia’s total motor-car exports fell by 22.9% in the same period. The decline in the CIS share should therefore not be interpreted solely as a change in markets for domestically produced goods; changing re-export flows also played a role.
Using the official rounded group shares, BTUAI estimates that the value of exports to CIS countries fell from roughly USD 2.23 billion to USD 1.95 billion – about USD 278 million, or 12.5%. These values are approximate because the published group shares are rounded to one decimal place.
Georgia’s total exports increased by 20% to USD 3.88 billion in the first half of 2026. But the increase was not driven by a broad breakthrough into the EU. The EU share fell from 11.5% to 10%, even though the approximate value of exports rose slightly.
The largest change occurred in the ‘other countries’ group. Its share rose from 19.5% to 39.6%, an increase of 20.1 percentage points. Based on the rounded official shares, the approximate value rose from about USD 631 million to USD 1.53 billion – roughly 143%.
China was the most visible driver: exports increased by 143% to USD 428.6 million. Exports to Türkiye rose by 57.3%, Iran by 629.5%, and Togo recorded a very large one-off increase. This is real geographical expansion, but the new growth is also concentrated in a few markets and commodity flows.
Why Georgian Businesses Have Not Expanded Into the EU at the Same Pace
The EU is strategically important for Georgia. The DCFTA removes most tariffs, supports regulatory approximation and provides access to a single market of 27 countries. The European Commission reports that the EU imported around EUR 900 million in goods from Georgia in 2025.
Yet the EU accounted for only 10% of Georgian exports in the first half of 2026. This does not mean the agreement has failed. Tariff-free access removes only one barrier. Success also requires certification, traceability, stable quality, product liability, volume consistency, packaging, distribution and competitive positioning.
Georgia’s Ministry of Economy reported in 2026 that 74% of DCFTA legislative approximation had been completed and the adoption of European standards was close to 95%. That is significant institutional progress, but national adoption of a standard is not the same as practical compliance by an individual SME. Much of the export gap lies in this implementation layer.
An Illustrative Georgian Mini-Case: Why a Company Chooses the Easier Market
Consider a small Georgian food producer choosing between Armenia, Kazakhstan and an EU member state. In a CIS market, the company may already know a distributor, need only minor packaging changes and receive an order quickly. In the EU, it may need new certification, laboratory testing, traceability, packaging redesign and a long distributor search.
In the short term, the nearby market is the rational choice. But a company that follows only the easiest route may never build the capabilities required for more stable and higher-value markets. Diversification does not mean abandoning CIS sales. It means building a second and third market in parallel so that one disruption does not determine the entire business.
What Businesses and Policymakers Need to Change
Export diversification is often treated as the accumulation of trade agreements. Agreements open doors, but firms still need market intelligence, compliance finance, export managers, distributor search, trade finance and several years of consistent market development.
Policy success should not be measured only by the share of exports going to the EU or another destination. It should include the number of new exporters, repeat orders, product upgrading, domestic value added and lower dependence on individual countries and commodities.
Businesses also need to treat exporting as an organizational capability rather than an occasional order. Entering a foreign market requires a product, quality system, financing, logistics and sales model built for a specific country.
BTU Researchers’ Assessment
According to BTU researchers, the 50.4% CIS share in Georgia’s total merchandise exports still signals high geographic concentration, but the one-year decline from 69% shows that the old trade map is no longer fixed. Because total exports include re-exports, domestic exports must also be examined separately. The main risk is that one concentration will simply be replaced by another – a few new countries and a few large commodity flows. Durable diversification will begin when the number of domestic exporting firms, repeat contracts, processed products and knowledge-based services rises alongside the number of destinations.
Key Findings
- CIS countries received 50.4% of Georgia’s total merchandise exports in the first half of 2026 – every second export dollar.
- The CIS share fell from 69.0% to 50.4% in one year, a decline of 18.6 percentage points; changing re-export flows contributed to the shift.
- Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, Russia, Armenia and Kazakhstan alone accounted for 43.4% of Georgia’s total exports.
- The share of other countries rose from 19.5% to 39.6%, driven by China and several other fast-growing destinations.
- The EU share was 10%, showing that formal market access has not yet translated into broad business penetration.
- Diversification does not require abandoning CIS markets; it requires building additional independent sources of demand.
- Georgia should measure export success through the number of exporters, products, repeat contracts and domestic value added, not only aggregate value.
Why This Matters for Georgia
In a small economy, a shift in one major market immediately affects production, jobs, foreign-currency inflows and regional businesses. CIS markets still provide Georgian firms with fast and relatively inexpensive access, but high concentration leaves the economy exposed to political, economic, currency and logistics shocks. Export diversification is therefore not merely a trade statistic; it is an issue of economic security, business capability and long-term development.
Conclusion
Half of Georgia’s total merchandise exports still go to CIS countries. The old markets and the re-export channels connected to them remain an important part of the country’s trade system. But the fall from 69% to 50.4% is the more important signal: the map is changing rapidly.
Without deliberate action, Georgia may remain dependent on a small number of markets and commodities, only with different country names. With the right support, CIS markets can remain a strong regional base while the EU, China, the Middle East and other destinations become independent sources of growth. True diversification begins when a problem in one market no longer determines the country’s export performance.
Data and Main Sources
- National Statistics Office of Georgia – External Merchandise Trade, January–June 2026, preliminary data.
- National Statistics Office of Georgia – External Merchandise Trade, January–June 2025, preliminary data.
- European Commission – EU trade relations with Georgia and the DCFTA framework.
- Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia – export-market and product diversification priority and DCFTA implementation progress, 2026.
- National Statistics Office of Georgia – Domestic Exports, January–June 2026, preliminary data.
This material is analytical and educational in nature. It does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice. Professional advice should be obtained before making a specific decision.
Prepared by the academic team of Business and Technology University and the BTUAI Research Team, Tbilisi, Georgia.