Georgia’s Lemon Supply: A Sharp Price Spike Reveals Deeper Systemic Flaws

In April 2025, one of the most striking developments in Georgia’s consumer market was the 90% surge in lemon prices, exposing a volatile undercurrent of inflation in the citrus sector. Far from being a seasonal fluctuation, this shift signals deeper structural issues tied to global supply chains, currency dynamics, and domestic market inefficiencies.

According to data from Geostat, Georgia imported 780 tons of lemons in the first quarter of 2025 at a total cost of USD 374,000. In the same period the year before, 718 tons had been imported at a slightly higher cost of USD 377,000. While the volume rose modestly—by 8.6%—the price per ton increased nearly 19%. But these numbers pale in comparison to what consumers experienced at retail level, where prices nearly doubled.

This gap reveals two separate realities: official customs statistics versus the realities of the retail market, where markups, supplier risk buffers, and trade policies play a far greater role in shaping final prices. It’s not just about import costs—it’s about how the product moves through the system.

Import Dependence and the Risk of Overconcentration

Georgia remains almost entirely dependent on imports for its lemon supply. In 2025, the fruit was sourced from just three countries: Turkey, the Netherlands, and Iran. Unsurprisingly, Turkey led both in volume and value — 726 tons worth USD 261,000, accounting for 93% of total imports. This overreliance creates a single-source vulnerability, where price shocks, climate disruptions, or logistical delays in one country can ripple across the Georgian market.

The Netherlands supplied 54 tons at a staggering cost of USD 112,000, translating to over USD 2,000 per ton. This suggests that the Netherlands is not a direct producer but a processing and redistribution hub, which drives up prices due to added transit and packaging costs. As for Iran, the contribution was negligible — just 100 kg, likely a test shipment or a niche order.

Retail vs. Reality: The Price Disconnect

While global inflation and higher transport costs play a role, inefficiencies in Georgia’s own logistical and commercial systems must also be considered. The sharp spike in store prices is often not directly proportional to customs values, raising concerns about unregulated profit margins and a lack of pricing oversight—a troubling trend for monetary stability and consumer purchasing power.

This lemon case vividly illustrates how even minor disruptions in global supply can lead to disproportionate local consequences, especially in markets where there is zero domestic production. In this sense, the lemon is merely a symptom — the deeper diagnosis affects Georgia’s entire food supply system.

Rethinking Supply Chains and Local Resilience

To mitigate future shocks, Georgia needs a smarter, more resilient approach. This includes:

• Improved storage and inventory management
• Diversification of import sources and supplier contracts
• Experimental local cultivation of high-demand imports like lemons

Ultimately, lemons are not just about price — they’re a case study in how fragile and reactive the food economy can be, and why strategic reform in agriculture, logistics, and trade regulation is no longer optional — it’s essential.