Georgia’s January-May 2026 external trade data show one of the most interesting pictures for the economy: exports are rising, while imports are declining. In the first five months of the year, external merchandise trade reached USD 10.44 billion, up 3.7% year-on-year. Exports increased by 19.8% and reached USD 3.11 billion, while imports declined by 1.9% to USD 7.33 billion.
At first glance, this is a good combination: the country is selling more and buying slightly less. But for Georgia’s economy, the data are not simple. The trade deficit remains high at USD 4.22 billion, equal to 40.5% of total trade turnover. This means that despite export growth, the country still imports far more goods than it exports.
The picture becomes even more important when local exports are added. In January-May 2026, local exports – exports excluding re-exports – increased by 66.1% and reached USD 1.93 billion. Their share in total exports rose to 62.1%, compared with 44.8% in the same period of 2025. This is an important signal because the key question for the economy is not only whether exports are growing, but what share of exports is created inside the country and what share is only redirected trade.
BTU researchers assess that rising exports and slower imports create both an opportunity and a warning for Georgia. The opportunity is that the country has a chance to gradually reduce the trade deficit, strengthen local production and create more local value in exports. The warning is that import decline does not always mean economic improvement – it may sometimes reflect weaker domestic demand, changes in the vehicle re-export cycle, price effects or the dynamics of specific commodity groups.
The main question is therefore whether this is the beginning of sustainable export strengthening or only a temporary trade adjustment.
For a small open economy, external trade is one of the clearest mirrors. It shows how the country is connected to foreign markets, what it sells, what it buys, where it depends on others, where it creates value and where money flows out of the country. For Georgia, where imports have historically exceeded exports significantly, rising exports and declining imports should always be read carefully.
The first positive sign in January-May 2026 data is strong export growth. A 19.8% increase means that Georgia’s external sales side strengthened. But export growth is especially valuable only when it is based on a broad, diversified and locally value-generating base. If export growth depends on a few products, re-exports or temporary price effects, its sustainability is weaker.
The second important signal is the 1.9% decline in imports. Import decline can be positive if the country produces more locally, depends less on external goods and uses resources more efficiently. But import decline can also be read negatively if it reflects weaker domestic demand, lower purchases of investment goods, fewer production inputs or disruptions in specific markets. Therefore, the fact that imports declined is not enough; it matters which goods declined and what this means for business.
In Georgia’s case, motor cars still occupy a particularly large place in import structure. In January-May 2026, imports of motor cars reached USD 1.25 billion, accounting for 17.1% of total imports. This means even a relatively small change in the vehicle market can have a major effect on total imports. If vehicle imports or the re-export cycle changes, the overall trade picture changes as well.
Motor cars also remain the largest export category, at USD 734.6 million, although exports of this category declined by 24.6% year-on-year. This is especially interesting: total exports are growing, but the largest export group is declining. This means export growth cannot be explained only by vehicle re-exports, and the role of other commodity groups or local exports has become more important.
In this context, the 66.1% growth of local exports is the strongest structural signal. Local exports better show the part of exports connected to value created or significantly transformed inside Georgia. Their rise to 62.1% of total exports means that the importance of the local component inside exports has increased. This is especially important for an economy that has often been strengthened by re-exports and the redirection of imported goods.
However, the composition of local exports requires caution. The largest local export category is petroleum and petroleum products at USD 352.2 million, followed by precious-metal ores and concentrates at USD 255.6 million, ferroalloys at USD 130.8 million, copper ores and concentrates at USD 112.3 million, and natural grape wines at USD 92.3 million. This means local exports are growing, but a large part remains connected to resource-based, raw-material and commodity groups.
This does not reduce the importance of the growth, but it shows the next task. For Georgia, high-quality export growth means not only more dollars in exports, but more diversified exports – processed goods, local brands, agro-industry, packaging, light manufacturing, technology services, logistics services and knowledge-based products. Such growth is more sustainable because it is less dependent on individual prices, commodity cycles or one specific market.
The structure of trade partners also raises important questions. In January-May 2026, the top export partners were Kyrgyzstan at USD 355.2 million, China at USD 327.5 million and Azerbaijan at USD 269.3 million. The top import partners were Türkiye at USD 1.16 billion, Russia at USD 983.4 million and China at USD 849.7 million. This shows that Georgia’s trade geography is diverse, but also dependent on several important partners whose economic or political shifts can quickly affect trade data.
This trade dynamic should also be read against GDP data. In Q1 2026, Georgia’s real GDP increased by 9.0%. When this growth is read together with trade data, it shows that the economy is active not only through domestic demand, but also through external connections. However, GDP sector data show that the main growth energy comes from services, information and communication, transport and financial activities, while agriculture and construction declined.
This means that export growth and import slowdown should be connected to a broader economic task: how to create an economy where trade is not only movement of goods; logistics is not only transit; exports are not only re-exports; and import decline reflects local value growth rather than weak demand.
Key findings
January-May 2026 data show a positive shift in Georgia’s external trade: exports are rising, while imports are declining. This is a good initial signal, but its meaning depends on how sustainable export growth is and what explains the import decline.
The trade deficit remains high. A USD 4.22 billion deficit means that Georgia still buys much more than it sells. Export growth is therefore only the first step; the next task is to reduce import dependence where local production, processing or services can realistically be strengthened.
The 66.1% increase in local exports is the most important positive signal. But their structure shows that growth is still strongly tied to petroleum products, ores, ferroalloys and other commodity groups. Georgia’s next stage should be more diversified, branded and higher-value exports.
The role of vehicles remains very large in both exports and imports. This creates income and logistics opportunities, but also increases vulnerability to global regulations, customs rules, demand in partner markets and re-export destinations.
Data and evidence base
In January-May 2026, Georgia’s external merchandise trade reached USD 10.44 billion, up 3.7% year-on-year. Exports increased by 19.8% to USD 3.11 billion. Imports declined by 1.9% to USD 7.33 billion. The trade deficit was USD 4.22 billion.
The top export partners were Kyrgyzstan at USD 355.2 million, China at USD 327.5 million and Azerbaijan at USD 269.3 million. The top import partners were Türkiye at USD 1.16 billion, Russia at USD 983.4 million and China at USD 849.7 million.
The largest export commodity group was motor cars at USD 734.6 million, although this category declined by 24.6% year-on-year. Motor cars were also the largest import category at USD 1.25 billion, accounting for 17.1% of total imports.
Local exports reached USD 1.93 billion in January-May 2026, up 66.1% compared with the same period of the previous year. Their share in total exports rose to 62.1%, compared with 44.8% in the same period of 2025.
In Q1 2026, Georgia’s real GDP increased by 9.0%, while GDP at current prices reached GEL 24.77 billion. This shows that changes in trade are taking place against a background of high economic activity.
Why this matters for Georgia
For Georgia, rising exports and slower imports matter because they relate directly to one of the economy’s main weaknesses – the high trade deficit. If the country can create more local value and add more diversified products to exports, the trade balance can gradually become healthier.
But this will not happen automatically. Export growth must translate into stronger business productivity, quality, branding, certification and market access. Import decline should not only result from weaker demand; it should increasingly reflect stronger local production and services.
This also matters for households. If the country depends heavily on imports, changes in external prices, logistics or exchange rates quickly affect consumer prices. If local production and exports strengthen, the economy becomes more resilient to external shocks.
For business, these data mean new questions: What do we sell? What do we buy? What can be created in Georgia? Where can imported components be processed? Where can a local brand be built? Where can logistics services be added? Where can AI and data analytics help manage exports, inventories, prices and markets?
BTUAI assessment
BTUAI assesses that Georgia’s January-May 2026 external trade data are a cautiously optimistic signal. Export growth and import decline show movement in the right direction, but the high level of the trade deficit reminds us that the structural problem of the economy has not yet been solved.
Georgia’s main task is to turn export growth into local value growth. This means more processing, more quality, more services, more logistics and digital components, more brands and more diversification. Only then can export growth truly strengthen the economy.
Import slowdown should be read not as an objective in itself, but as a question: did imports decline because the economy became more efficient, or because specific demand weakened? If import decline reflects local substitution, efficiency or higher value creation, it is positive. If it reflects weaker demand, caution is needed.
BTUAI assesses that the right path for Georgia is to maintain open trade while strengthening local value. The country should use imports for technology, components, competition and quality improvement, while also expanding exports, local production, logistics services and knowledge-based economic activity.
Article identification
Title: Exports Are Rising and Imports Are Slowing: What This Means for Georgia’s Economy
Platform: BTUAI.ge
Country: Georgia
Topic: External trade, exports, imports, trade deficit, local exports
Period: January-May 2026; Q1 2026
Languages: Georgian and English
Methodology
This article was prepared through an analytical reading of Georgia’s official 2026 economic data. It uses January-May 2026 external merchandise trade data, January-May 2026 local export data and Q1 2026 GDP indicators. The analysis assesses the economic meaning of export growth, import slowdown, trade deficit, the role of vehicles and the structure of local exports.
Limitations
This material is analytical and educational in nature. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal or tax advice. Before making a specific decision, consultation with a relevant specialist is recommended.
The data used are preliminary and may be revised. External trade data do not include undeclared or unorganized trade and commodity flows that are not covered by external trade statistics under international methodology.
Sources
National Statistics Office of Georgia – External Merchandise Trade of Georgia, January-May 2026.
National Statistics Office of Georgia – Local Exports of Georgia, January-May 2026.
National Statistics Office of Georgia – Gross Domestic Product of Georgia, Q1 2026.
BTUAI Research Team – analytical processing and interpretation in Georgia’s context.
FAQ
Why does it matter that exports are rising and imports are declining?
It may point to an opportunity for trade-balance improvement, but the sustainability of export growth and the reasons for import decline must be understood.
Does import decline always mean a good trend?
No. Import decline is positive if it reflects stronger local production or efficiency. If it reflects weaker domestic demand, investment or production-input purchases, caution is needed.
Why does the trade deficit remain the main problem?
Because Georgia still imports much more than it exports. In January-May 2026, the deficit was USD 4.22 billion.
Why are local exports important?
Local exports better show value created or significantly transformed inside the country. Their 66.1% growth is a positive structural signal.
What should business do?
Businesses should search for new export markets, strengthen quality, certification, branding, logistics and data analytics so that export growth becomes real value.
Keywords
Georgia trade 2026; export growth Georgia; import slowdown Georgia; trade deficit Georgia; local exports Georgia; vehicle re-exports Georgia; import dependence Georgia; local value creation; external trade Georgia; BTUAI; Business and Technology University.
Citation format
BTUAI Research Team. “Exports Are Rising and Imports Are Slowing: What This Means for Georgia’s Economy.” Business and Technology University, BTUAI.ge, 2026.
Authorship and BTUAI standard footer
Prepared by the academic team of Business and Technology University and the BTUAI Research Team.
Tbilisi, Georgia
BTUAI is an analytical platform of Business and Technology University that studies the impact of artificial intelligence, digital transformation, innovation, startup ecosystems, data analytics and emerging technologies on business, the economy, education and society. BTUAI materials are designed to explain complex technological and economic changes in a clear, reliable and Georgia-focused way.