Automation Risks in Georgia’s Labour Market: Who Is Most Likely to Be Affected?

The rapid spread of artificial intelligence and automation has become one of the most pressing debates in today’s labour market. The question of “who is most at risk?” is no longer a theoretical discussion about technological progress — it is a practical challenge faced by both developed and developing countries.

The International Labour Organization’s (ILO) recent research shows that the highest risks are concentrated in occupational groups where work consists mainly of repetitive, routine, and easily automatable tasks. Particularly vulnerable are clerical support roles – administrators (receptionists), customer service workers, data-entry clerks, bank tellers, and similar positions.

Global Perspective and the Scale of Risk

The ILO estimates that only around 2.3% of jobs worldwide (about 75 million) are at risk of being fully automated, while the vast majority will be transformed by 2030 rather than eliminated. In other words, AI and other technologies will take over certain processes, but human input will remain necessary.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data shows that high-risk roles include not only office-based but also routine manual jobs — such as fast-food workers, cleaners, heavy- and tractor-trailer truck drivers, and warehouse labourers (source: bls.gov). These jobs typically involve repetitive mechanical or service-related tasks that technology can learn to perform quickly.

How Was Georgia’s Risk Assessment Done?

The estimates for Georgia are based on calculations using GeoStat’s Labour Force Survey database, which provides detailed employment figures by occupation according to the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO). This dataset allowed the grouping of Georgia’s workforce into high-, medium-, and low-automation-risk categories by matching each major occupational group to international risk assessments from the ILO and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, ensuring that the results reflect the country’s actual employment structure.

• High risk – Jobs dominated by routine administrative or machine-operation tasks: secretaries, cashiers, data-entry clerks, drivers, cleaners, stationary machine operators.
• Medium risk – Jobs combining routine elements with interpersonal skills or manual expertise: shop salespersons, waiters, farmers, craft workers, construction trades.
• Low risk – Jobs requiring high-level cognitive or creative skills: managers, engineers, teachers, doctors, IT specialists.

Distribution of Employment in Georgia by Automation Risk

Sector-Level Breakdown of Risk

Beyond occupational groups, the pressure of automation varies significantly across economic sectors. High-risk roles are particularly concentrated in:

• Public administration and finance – large shares of clerical and administrative positions where data processing and document management could be automated.
• Transport and logistics – drivers, stationary machine operators, and warehouse workers, where automation and robotic warehousing are already emerging.
• Cleaning and domestic services – cleaners and household service workers, where full substitution is less common, but partial automation of services is already taking place.

Medium-risk jobs are most common in trade, food service, and agriculture, where technology replaces some tasks (such as self-checkout kiosks or automated irrigation systems) but cannot fully replace human labour.

Low-risk jobs are heavily concentrated in education, healthcare, information technology, and management, where decision-making, creativity, and social intelligence remain difficult to automate.

What Do These Numbers Tell Us?

The data shows that around one-quarter of Georgia’s jobs could be in high-risk categories by 2030. Particularly vulnerable are sectors with large numbers of clerical staff, transport operators, and cleaners.

Among hired employees, the share of high-risk jobs rises to 30% — explained by the fact that formal employment has a higher concentration of administrative and machine-operation roles. This means the formal sector may feel the pressure of automation more sharply than self-employment.

Medium-risk jobs make up the largest category — nearly half of the labour market. Here, automation will reduce the routine portion of work, but human skills — especially communication, empathy, and creativity — remain essential.

Low-risk jobs involve roles that require high-level decision-making, analytical thinking, and specialised knowledge. Although AI will affect them as well, the impact will be transformative rather than substitutive.

Why Automation Doesn’t Necessarily Mean Mass Unemployment?

The ILO emphasises that fully disappearing occupations will remain rare even in the coming decade. It is far more likely that jobs will be reshaped by 2030 — with automation taking over tasks that used to consume significant amounts of time, while workers focus on more complex and higher-value activities.

This is particularly important for Georgia, where a large share of small and medium-sized businesses operate in service and trade sectors. For these companies, AI could become not a threat but a tool for boosting productivity — if timely reskilling and technology integration take place.

Policy Challenges and Recommendations

International experience shows that the social and economic disruptions of technological transformation can be significantly reduced if countries act early:

• Upskilling – equipping workers with new technological and digital skills.
• Reskilling – enabling transitions from high-risk jobs to lower-risk professions.
• Social dialogue – cooperation between the state and employers to manage future risks.

For Georgia, special attention will be needed for clerical roles, transport services, and cleaning services — the areas where automation’s impact is likely to be fastest and most disruptive.