The entry point of a career – that first job in which a young professional actually learns the trade – has turned out to be the most exposed rung of the labour market. This analysis from BTUAI examines whether entry-level jobs are really disappearing, how much of that is artificial intelligence, how the content of the junior role itself is changing, and what the shift means for Georgia.
Are entry-level jobs really disappearing?
The data says yes. According to Revelio Labs, entry-level postings have fallen more than 35% since January 2023 – roughly 100,000 fewer listings a month. In the most AI-exposed roles the drop exceeds 40%, against 33% in the least exposed. SignalFire finds new-graduate hiring down about 65% at large tech firms and 76% at early-stage startups versus 2019. The form matters: there are no mass layoffs – firms have simply stopped taking new people on.
What does the research show?
The Stanford Digital Economy Lab study, built on ADP payroll records, finds that workers aged 22–25 in the most AI-exposed occupations show roughly 19% lower employment than same-age peers in less exposed fields, with no comparable gap among experienced workers. A Harvard study covering more than 280,000 firms calls the same phenomenon “seniority-biased technological change”. Estimates vary, however – from 13% to 19% – so it is more accurate to speak of a range.
Is artificial intelligence really the cause?
That is not yet established. The Budget Lab at Yale concluded in 2026 that there is still no clear evidence of an AI effect on employment or wages. Frank and co-authors show that unemployment risk in AI-exposed occupations began rising in early 2022 – months before ChatGPT, in the same window in which the Federal Reserve began raising rates aggressively. The Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research treats causation as “empirically challenging” and still open.
What is “seniorisation”?
PwC’s 2026 Global AI Jobs Barometer, analysing more than a billion job advertisements across 27 countries, supplies the key answer: entry-level work has not disappeared – getting into it has become harder. In the most AI-exposed occupations, entry-level vacancies are seven times more likely to demand formerly senior skills; such postings grew 35% since 2019 while traditional entry-level openings fell 10%. The paradox is that AI absorbs exactly the routine work that used to serve as training.
What are employers doing?
The picture is not one-sided. Cutting the junior tier has a backlash: the work is automated but responsibility moves upward, leaving middle management overloaded. On top of that sits a succession problem – no juniors trained today means no seniors five years from now. Some firms are betting the other way: Cognizant hired 25,000 graduates in 2025. Out of this emerges a redesigned junior role in which the emphasis shifts from executing tasks to exercising judgment.
What does this mean for Georgia?
According to the International Monetary Fund, demand for new skills in emerging economies is about half that of advanced ones, and adoption in comparable markets runs eight to nine months behind the United States. Youth employment, moreover, is concentrated in exactly those occupations where AI exposure is high and complementarity low. In Georgia, unemployment among 20–24-year-olds stands at 17.6%, while the most exposed sector – IT – grew fivefold between 2017 and 2023 to 24,760 employees, though foreign revenue fell 12% in 2024.
Where should Georgia start?
Lagging behind buys time: the country can learn from markets where the decline has already happened. That time becomes an advantage only if three conditions are met – the junior role is redesigned so that working with AI is written into it rather than cut out of it; universities teach domain judgment and AI literacy together; and an apprenticeship or subsidy mechanism appears. Because Georgia does not yet have a national AI strategy, much of the responsibility rests with employers and universities.
This analysis was prepared by the academic team of the Business and Technology University (BTU) together with BTUAI and draws on publicly available industry reports and research. The full report, with charts, is attached as a separate file.