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BTU researchers calculate that computer and information services generated an increase equivalent to 129.2% of Georgia’s net services-export growth in the first half of 2026, while the other services combined declined. The World Trade Organization’s October report makes these different sources of foreign earnings particularly relevant, although Georgia’s newer third-quarter travel figures already show year-on-year growth rather than a continuation of the first-half decline.
Key Takeaways
- Using a consistent National Bank of Georgia dataset, BTU calculates that first-half services exports increased by USD 272.9 million year on year, while computer and information services increased by USD 352.6 million. All other services combined therefore declined by USD 79.8 million.
- BTU calculates that computer and information services represented 21.6% of services exports in the first half of 2026, compared with 49.5% for travel and 19.2% for transport. Growth contribution and export share differ: travel remained the largest category, but the source of additional growth was different.
- Using the NBG’s latest available travel table, BTU calculates third-quarter growth of 11.9% year on year. This does not erase the first-half pattern, but it prevents treating that earlier weakness as a continuing full-year trend. Resilience depends on several revenue sources with different exposures.
For Georgia, selling services abroad involves more than welcoming a guest into a hotel. It also includes transport supplied to a non-resident, computer services sold to an overseas client, and financial and other business services. The combined dollar value matters. But a single total does not tell us how widely growth is distributed or which activities are carrying it.
The question has become more relevant following the WTO’s report of 8 October. The organization raised its forecast for 2026 merchandise trade volume growth from 1.9% to 3.9%, while reducing its commercial services trade forecast from 4.8% to 3.3%. It links the divergence to strong AI-related investment demand and international disruptions affecting travel and transport. These are world forecasts, not estimates of Georgia’s performance. [1]
Georgia’s latest travel figures sharpen the question. Following the new information reported on 20 October, the NBG table puts January–September travel receipts at USD 3.796 billion, up 4.4% year on year. Rising receipts are welcome. Yet understanding exposure to changing foreign demand also requires knowing what is happening beyond tourism. To compare all major services on the same basis, this analysis uses the latest common period available: the first half of 2026 against the first half of 2025. [2, 3]
A growing total contains opposing movements
The NBG’s detailed balance-of-payments tables show first-half services exports rising from USD 3.628 billion to USD 3.901 billion. BTU calculates growth of 7.5%. Within that result, computer and information services increased from USD 488.9 million to USD 841.6 million, a rise of 72.1%. [2]
Breaking the total into components changes the interpretation. Travel receipts declined by USD 39.3 million and transport exports by USD 76.8 million. Services outside travel, transport, and computer and information services added USD 36.4 million. That increase did not fully compensate for the declines in the two larger categories.
Georgia’s services exports in the first half
| Service | H1 2025 | H1 2026 | Change | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travel | 1,971.0 | 1,931.7 | -39.3 | -2.0% |
| Transport | 827.3 | 750.4 | -76.8 | -9.3% |
| Computer and information | 488.9 | 841.6 | +352.6 | +72.1% |
| Other services | 340.8 | 377.1 | +36.4 | +10.7% |
| Total | 3,628.0 | 3,900.9 | +272.9 | +7.5% |
Source: National Bank of Georgia, BPM5 balance of payments, services credits. Amounts in USD million at current prices. Half-year sums, differences, growth rates and the residual “Other services” category are BTU calculations. Rounding may prevent displayed components from adding exactly to totals. [2]
The central result is straightforward: the USD 352.6 million increase in computer and information services exceeded the USD 272.9 million increase in all services. Dividing the former by the latter gives 129.2%. This is neither an error nor a claim that one industry accounts for 129% of exports. It measures contribution to net growth. One category added more than the final total increase because the combined decline elsewhere offset part of its contribution.
The more accurate description is therefore not that services are strengthening uniformly. Different revenues are moving in opposite directions. Excluding computer and information services, exports declined from USD 3.139 billion to USD 3.059 billion, or by 2.5%. This is an accounting decomposition of observed data, not a causal prediction of what the economy would have done had that activity not existed.
Tourism recovery changes the picture without erasing it
Extending the first-half travel weakness automatically would be misleading. The newer NBG table shows third-quarter travel receipts increasing from USD 1.667 billion to USD 1.864 billion. BTU calculates a rise of USD 197.6 million, or 11.9%. That recovery turned the negative first-half year-on-year change into a positive nine-month result. [3]
The distinction between a source of growth and a permanent trend matters. During the first half, computer and information services offset weakness in other large categories. Travel then began adding revenue too. Sectors do not move at the same speed or on the same calendar. However, the new travel observation cannot substitute for a complete third-quarter dataset covering computer services, transport and the total. A nine-month services-export composition cannot be constructed by combining these different reporting windows.
Travel also remained the largest source, accounting for nearly half of first-half services exports. Computer and information services represented approximately a fifth, even though their contribution exceeded the entire net increase. Neither treating tourism as secondary nor dismissing digital-service growth as a minor addition is justified.
How international changes reach Georgia
The WTO reports nominal growth in global spending on travel abroad of 15% year on year in the first quarter and 5% in the second. Computer services exports increased by 18% in the first quarter and an estimated 12% in the second. These value measures are different from the report’s annual volume forecasts. The useful international lesson is that different delivery channels respond differently to disruption. [1]
For tourism, the customer must travel to the place where the service is delivered. Flight availability, travel costs, household budgets and perceptions of safety can change the decision. A hotel feels the effect through bookings; restaurants, local transport providers, guides and suppliers may then experience it through their own orders. The visitor’s spending is not solely a hotel-sector indicator.
For transport services, what matters is who performs the contract, along which route and at what price. More cargo moving through a territory does not automatically mean higher export earnings for its resident transport providers. The balance of payments measures services sold, not simply tonnes carried. Georgian logistics businesses must therefore assess changing international flows alongside their own contracts, service mix and costs.
Remotely delivered computer services do not require customers to visit Georgia. This reduces direct dependence on physical movement, but it does not eliminate risk. Overseas clients’ budgets, dependence on a few large customers, contract renewal and changing technological demand can all matter. The NBG category does not reveal how much growth comes from individual firms, new contracts or price changes. International digital demand is thus a plausible transmission channel, not a verified sole explanation for Georgia’s 72.1% increase.
Why the composition matters beyond exporters
In BTU researchers’ assessment, the benefit for Georgia lies in having revenue sources with different exposures. Not every sale depends on the same flight route or type of overseas customer. But a diversified level of exports does not automatically mean diversified growth. In the first half, the total was distributed across several substantial categories, while additional growth depended particularly heavily on one.
That distinction has practical implications for planning. A tourism company should not treat growth in all services exports as proof that its own demand is rising. A digital supplier should not interpret a high sector-wide growth rate as evidence that every contract is secure. For a bank or investor, two businesses with the same dollar revenue can carry different risks if one depends on seasonal visits and the other on orders from a few foreign clients.
Households are connected to these revenues too. Service sales can become wages, supplier orders, rent payments or local purchases. But the increase in export value does not tell us how many jobs were created, how much income remained in Georgia or whose wages rose. Answering those questions requires additional information about costs, employment and ownership. The USD 352.6 million increase should not be presented entirely as new labour income for Georgian households.
Diverse foreign earnings also matter for the economy’s capacity to finance imports. Services sold abroad form part of external receipts, but they do not determine the lari exchange rate or the price of a particular imported product on their own. Services imports, goods trade, income payments and capital flows act alongside them. The finding supports the case for a stronger mix of foreign earnings, not an exchange-rate prediction.
Conclusion
The significance of Georgia’s 7.5% first-half services-export growth extends beyond a larger dollar total. Computer and information services added more than the net increase, while travel and transport declined during the same period. The third-quarter travel recovery shows that this balance changes and must be updated rather than treated as a permanent ranking.
Georgia’s task is not to replace tourism with digital services. It is to develop several strong export-income sources and assess each separately: where revenue is growing, how widely growth is distributed and which international changes affect it. That is a more useful way to judge external-income resilience than relying on a single positive headline.
Questions and answers
How can one category contribute 129.2% of growth?
Computer and information services increased by USD 352.6 million, while all other services combined declined by USD 79.8 million. The resulting net increase was USD 272.9 million. The 129.2% figure is a contribution to that increase, not a share of total exports.
Does this mean tourism declined throughout 2026?
No. Travel receipts fell by 2.0% year on year in the first half but increased by 11.9% in the third quarter. The nine-month total was 4.4% above the corresponding period of 2025.
Does the world forecast determine Georgia’s growth?
No. The WTO report identifies different channels of international demand and disruption. Georgia’s outcomes depend on its markets, suppliers and contracts; global growth rates are not a Georgian forecast.
What does services-export growth not tell us?
It does not automatically measure domestic value added, jobs or wage growth. It records the value of services sold by residents to non-residents, not the final distribution of that revenue.