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In the first five months of 2026, Georgia’s exports became less dependent on a single dominant product. Passenger cars fell from 37.6% to 23.6% of exports, while petroleum products, precious-metal ores, copper ores and ferroalloys expanded sharply. This is a genuine diversification signal, but not yet proof of a broad manufacturing transformation: those four groups generated 77.1% of the increase in exports excluding cars.
Total merchandise exports rose 19.8% to $3.11 billion even as passenger-car exports declined 24.6%. The loss of the country’s largest export item therefore did not pull the headline total down. Several other categories more than offset it. What changed was not only value but also the distribution of export earnings across products.
The National Bank of Georgia assessed the May 2026 commodity mix as more diversified than a year earlier. Yet “more diversified” is a relative statement. Georgia’s new export pillars remain concentrated in energy products, ores and a limited number of industrial flows.
Four groups reshaped the picture
Petroleum and petroleum oils increased from $37.2 million to $366.6 million. Precious-metal ores rose 87.2% to $255.6 million, copper ores increased 206.5% to $112.3 million, and ferroalloys expanded 76.9% to $130.8 million. Together, the four groups added about $581.1 million. Exports excluding cars increased by $753.4 million, meaning these four products accounted for 77.1% of that gain.
The arithmetic carries two messages at once. Georgia is no longer relying on car re-exports alone to generate export growth. But the replacement growth is not yet broadly distributed across dozens of industries.
Domestic exports provide the stronger signal
Domestic exports rose 66.1% to $1.93 billion and increased from 44.8% to 62.1% of total exports. Geostat defines the category as goods produced in Georgia plus imported goods that undergo substantial transformation or significant value addition in the country. The result therefore shows that the expansion was not merely a redirection of goods across the border.
Still, domestic exports should not be read as a perfect measure of Georgian-origin inputs or net domestic value added. Petroleum exports, for example, may include processing of imported feedstock. The better policy question is how much value was created in Georgia, how many workers and local suppliers participated, and whether the capability can persist.
New markets can also create new dependencies
Exports to China rose from $133.3 million to $327.5 million, helped by precious-metal ores, petroleum products and copper ores. China, Russia and Türkiye became the three largest destinations for domestic exports, while the ten largest markets absorbed 66.9% of the domestic total.
Product and market diversification are different. Selling one product across several countries reduces one kind of risk; selling many products into one market creates another concentration. A resilient model needs both a wider product range and a wider set of dependable destinations.
Why the transformation is not complete
Commodity export values can rise because of higher output, but also because of prices, feedstock availability, one-off contracts or operating schedules at a small number of facilities. Ores and ferroalloys are exposed to cyclical international markets. The near-tenfold rise in petroleum exports also begins from a low base and warrants close monitoring.
Traditional exports did not all strengthen. Domestic wine exports declined 5.0%, and spirits fell 10.6%. The export basket improved unevenly: several powerful new groups emerged while some more brand-based and broadly distributed activities weakened.
What it means for Georgia
According to BTU researchers, the 2026 figures describe an early improvement in Georgia’s export resilience. The 14-percentage-point decline in the car share and the 17.3-point rise in the domestic-export share show that weakness in one trading channel no longer automatically eliminates aggregate growth. Resilience will deepen only if more medium-sized exporters and more processed goods emerge alongside today’s four large groups.
For business, the opportunity lies in adjacent value chains: deeper processing of ores; a shift from ferroalloys toward higher-value metal products; expansion of energy and logistics services; and better testing, certification and trade finance. For smaller firms, the practical route into exports may be to become a local supplier to a major exporter rather than attempting to sell a finished product abroad alone.
For government, the task is broader than supporting current winners. Reliable energy, efficient customs, quality laboratories, international certification, export insurance, market intelligence and relevant skills help many sectors at once. That is the infrastructure of diversification that can survive after a one-off surge.
Georgia’s exports did become more diverse in 2026. The result combines optimism with caution: dependence on one dominant product declined and domestic exports surged, but most new growth remains concentrated in a few large and cyclical categories. The next test is not only the export total, but the number of products, firms, markets and units of value actually created inside Georgia.