In January–July 2026, Georgia’s merchandise exports rose 21.6% year on year while imports increased only 2.4%. The ratio is exactly nine: measured by percentage growth, exports expanded nine times faster than imports. Export coverage of imports improved from roughly 36.2% to 43.0%, while the trade deficit narrowed by about $577.5 million, or 8.5%.
Exports totalled $4.67 billion and imports $10.85 billion; imports remain about 2.32 times larger. What changed is the direction of the imbalance: it became smaller in 2026.
Core indicators
| Indicator | Jan–Jul 2025 | Jan–Jul 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports | $3.839bn | $4.670bn | +$830.7m / +21.6% |
| Imports | $10.596bn | $10.849bn | +$253.2m / +2.4% |
| Trade turnover | $14.435bn | $15.519bn | +$1.084bn / +7.5% |
| Trade deficit | $6.756bn | $6.179bn | −$577.5m / −8.5% |
| Export coverage | 36.24% | 43.05% | +6.81 pp |
Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia. Derived indicators independently calculated by BTUAI.
What “nine times faster” means
It is a ratio of growth rates, not trade volumes: 21.6 ÷ 2.4 = 9. Because imports start from a much larger base, their 2.4% rise still added $253.2 million. Exports added $830.7 million, meaning the absolute export increase was about 3.28 times the import increase.
| BTUAI calculation | Formula | Result | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growth-rate ratio | 21.6% ÷ 2.4% | 9.0x | Headline metric |
| Import/export volume ratio | $10.849bn ÷ $4.670bn | 2.32x | Imports remain larger |
| Absolute increase ratio | $830.7m ÷ $253.2m | 3.28x | Dollar-growth comparison |
| Deficit reduction | $6.756bn − $6.179bn | $577.5m | Improved balance |
| Coverage gain | 43.05% − 36.24% | +6.81 pp | Exports cover more imports |
What is driving the surge?
Growth is meaningful but uneven. Petroleum and petroleum products rose from about $49.6 million to $571.5 million. Precious-metal ores added roughly $153.3 million, copper ores $113.9 million and ferroalloys $79.8 million. Passenger-car exports, still the largest category, fell 21.5%. Wine declined 1.6% and spirits 7.5%. The mix therefore combines stronger industrial and mineral flows with possible re-export and one-off effects.
| Export category | 2026 value | YoY change | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passenger cars | $1.161bn | −21.5% | Largest category, but declining |
| Petroleum products | $571.5m | +1,052.0% | Largest growth contribution; likely re-export component |
| Precious-metal ores | $356.3m | +75.6% | Strong commodity growth |
| Ferroalloys | $187.2m | +74.3% | Industrial improvement |
| Copper ores | $150.6m | +310.8% | High growth from a smaller base |
| Natural wine | $143.1m | −1.6% | Traditional product lagging |
| Spirits | $137.1m | −7.5% | Decline strengthens value-upgrading case |
Why it matters
The first benefit is a narrower trade deficit. The second is the composition of new trade: exports generated about 76.6% of the $1.084 billion increase in turnover, compared with 23.4% from imports. The third is business opportunity across production, logistics, customs and trade finance. The national payoff is highest when a large share of export value is created inside Georgia through production, knowledge, design and technology – not merely through goods passing across its territory.
Reasons for caution
- The deficit remains $6.18 billion, equal to 39.8% of trade turnover.
- The top ten destination countries account for 70.2% of exports.
- The EU receives only 9.2% of exports but supplies 24.5% of imports.
- Fuel and mineral flows may be exposed to price, re-export and one-off effects.
- Wine and spirits did not participate in the overall export boom.
Three scenarios
| Scenario | Condition | Outcome | Confirmation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Durable improvement | Growth spreads across products and markets | Deficit narrows and domestic production strengthens | Local exports, EU share, new products |
| Flow-dependent surge | A few commodities and re-exports dominate | Turnover rises but domestic value added is limited | Re-export share and one-off deals |
| Momentum reversal | Commodity flows/prices weaken and imports accelerate | Deficit widens again | Monthly exports, prices and import growth |
These are conditional scenarios, not forecasts. The quality of 21.6% growth depends on origin, diversification, stability and the share of value created in Georgia.
What policy and business should do
- Separate and publish local exports and re-exports more prominently and frequently.
- Shift from volume alone to value per unit through premium products, design, certification and branding.
- Diversify concentrated products toward the EU and other high-purchasing-power markets.
- Expand SME access to standards, logistics, trade finance and digital sales.
- Measure success by value, domestic value added, diversification and unit price.
Conclusion
Exports growing nine times faster than imports is a real achievement. It narrowed the seven-month deficit by about $577.5 million and improved export coverage by 6.8 percentage points. The next challenge is to convert momentum into domestic production, high value added, stable jobs and diversified markets. Georgia’s first seven months show that the trade imbalance can improve; the decisive question is whether that improvement is high-quality and durable.
Sources
- National Statistics Office of Georgia, Foreign Trade of Georgia, January–July 2026, preliminary data, 19 August 2026. https://www.geostat.ge/media/82061/