The central issue

Batumi’s housing market no longer depends only on local incomes. In the developer projects surveyed by Galt & Taggart, Georgian citizens accounted for about 55% of sales in the first half of 2026, leaving roughly 45% to foreign buyers. This international demand brings capital and scale, but it also links Batumi property to economic and political cycles outside Georgia.

Who the foreign buyer is

The study groups buyers from Ukraine, Russia and Belarus, Europe, Israel, Arab countries, Turkey and other markets. That geographic spread reduces dependence on any one country, but the motives differ: residence, rental income, capital preservation and expected resale gains. Demand based on real use and durable income is more resilient than demand based mainly on continued price appreciation.

The implied scale

The survey recorded 3,481 sales in H1 2026. Applying the 55/45 split implies roughly 1,915 purchases by Georgian citizens and 1,566 by foreigners. These are derived approximations, not separately published unit counts. The survey covers more than 30 developments and about 40% of the primary market, so it does not describe every Batumi transaction.

Three foreign-demand shocks

If foreign activity fell 25% while local demand remained unchanged, total sales would decline about 11.25%. Annualised surveyed sales would fall from 6,962 to roughly 6,179 units, and the theoretical absorption of the existing 13,866-unit stock would lengthen from 23.9 to 26.9 months. A 50% foreign-demand decline would reduce total demand by about 22.5%, lower annualised sales to roughly 5,396 and extend absorption to about 30.8 months. These calculations exclude future supply.

A complete disappearance is unlikely but reveals structural dependence. With only the local 55% remaining, annualised sales would fall to about 3,829 and current-stock absorption would approach 43.5 months.

How shocks reach housing

The first channel is mobility. Flight disruption and security concerns obstruct viewings, contracting and property management. Georgia’s Tourism Administration reported Q1 2026 visit declines of 48.8% from Iran, 29.5% from India and 17.5% from Israel amid regional conflict and cancelled flights. The second channel is finance: sanctions, transfer restrictions and weaker source-country income can prevent a willing buyer from completing a transaction. The third is expectations: international investors can redirect capital to competing cities more easily than a developer can move a building.

Currency risk works both ways

Batumi apartments are largely priced in dollars, while Georgian buyers often earn in lari. Lari depreciation raises the local-currency purchase cost. A foreign buyer’s affordability depends on the value of their own currency against the dollar. Rental income and expenses can also be denominated differently, creating a currency mismatch between asset, cash flow and financing.

The conclusion

BTU researchers conclude that a 45% foreign share is evidence of Batumi’s international appeal and a channel through which external shocks reach the market. Resilience does not require fewer foreigners. It requires a more diverse foreign buyer base, stronger local end-user demand and projects supported by real use and rental economics. The key question is whether the market can continue functioning when one important foreign group temporarily disappears.

Sources

• Galt & Taggart – „ბათუმის საცხოვრებელი უძრავი ქონება: 2026 წლის II კვარტლის მიმოხილვა“, 14 აგვისტო 2026. User-provided research; no direct public URL was supplied.
• Georgian National Tourism Administration – International travel statistics, Q1 2026 – https://gnta.ge/%E1%83%9B%E1%83%94%E1%83%93%E1%83%98%E1%83%90-%E1%83%AA%E1%83%94%E1%83%9C%E1%83%A2%E1%83%A0%E1%83%98/stat-info
• National Bank of Georgia – Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism – https://nbg.gov.ge/en/page/monetary-policy-transmission-mechanism
• National Statistics Office of Georgia – Work on expanding the Residential Property Price Index – https://www.geostat.ge/en/single-news/3730/mission-of-the-international-monetary-fund-at-geostat