Who Will Benefit from Global Warming? The New Opportunities for Northern Countries

Global warming presents serious challenges for most of the world, but some countries may actually benefit. Climate change is reshaping the balance of power in Arctic and nearby regions, affecting economies, trade, and access to resources. Over the next 20-30 years, these changes will become particularly evident, as northern countries that once struggled with harsh climates gain new opportunities. The biggest winner in this transformation is undoubtedly Russia.

Russia stands to gain the most from climate change. The opening of the Northern Sea Route will significantly boost its transport potential, making it the shortest trade route between Asia and Europe. Additionally, as permafrost melts, vast northern territories will become more accessible for agriculture, energy, and resource extraction. However, without infrastructure development and environmental management, these advantages may be difficult to fully realize.

Canada follows a similar trajectory. The opening of the Northwest Passage, linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, positions Canada as a key trade hub. Furthermore, warmer temperatures will improve agricultural productivity in the country’s northern provinces, making large-scale farming easier.

Scandinavian countries – Norway, Sweden, and Finland – will also see benefits. Norway’s ports will become more strategically important due to the shift in global trade routes, and its oil and gas industry will expand. Sweden and Finland will experience longer growing seasons, boosting agricultural productivity and economic resilience.

Iceland could be one of the biggest beneficiaries. Its location makes it an ideal transport hub connecting Europe, North America, and the Arctic. Growth in tourism, fishing, and logistics could diversify its economy and enhance its strategic position.

Denmark, through Greenland, could gain economically from new oil, gas, and mineral resources. However, the growing independence movement in Greenland raises questions about whether Denmark will retain control over these opportunities.

The U.S., particularly Alaska, will see increased shipping activity and new opportunities in resource extraction, but environmental risks remain a concern.

Similar benefits may reach Estonia, as its ports become more relevant in Arctic trade, and the UK, whose financial and shipping sectors stand to gain from shifting global trade patterns.

Thus, while climate change is a crisis for most of the world, northern countries are positioning themselves to take full advantage of the new economic landscape.