Turkey–Georgia Economic Alliance: Structural Shifts and Emerging Trends

For nearly three decades, Turkey has remained one of Georgia’s most important economic partners. Yet, in the years following Georgia’s independence, the scale and structure of economic relations between the two countries have significantly evolved. As bilateral ties have deepened, new challenges and trends have also emerged—developments that could redefine the strategic weight of the partnership.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) from Turkey dates back to the 1990s, with a peak in 2017, when Turkish capital inflows reached $256 million. Since then, the trajectory has been uneven, with investments totaling just $93.2 million in 2024—less than a third of the 2017 figure. Over the past five years, investment levels have stabilized at a lower baseline, and in the first quarter of this year, the inflow has decreased further compared to last year. Turkey currently ranks only third among Georgia’s largest investors, underscoring rising competition from other regional players.

Remittance flows from Turkey to Georgia also declined in 2024 compared to the previous year. However, signs of recovery have emerged: in just the first five months of 2025, remittances surpassed $42 million, a 6.3% increase year-over-year. Still, the scale of financial ties between individuals in the two countries lags behind countries like Italy and the United States.

In terms of trade, Turkey remains Georgia’s largest trading partner. In 2024, bilateral trade exceeded $3.2 billion, accounting for 13.8% of Georgia’s total foreign trade. However, the trade balance is clearly tilted in Turkey’s favor, with imports far exceeding exports—especially in pharmaceuticals, oil, steel structures, and vehicles. Although Georgian exports have increased in some years, the country’s outbound trade is largely concentrated in ferroalloys and textile products, both of which have declined in 2025. From January to May, total trade turnover fell by 4%, exports dropped by 22%, and imports decreased by 1%.

Tourism—another strategic component of bilateral relations—has entered a new phase. After rebounding post-pandemic, the number of Turkish visitors to Georgia has started to decline. In the first half of 2025, arrivals from Turkey dropped by 14.5% compared to the same period last year.

Taken together, these figures paint a clear picture: Turkey remains a critical economic partner for Georgia across investment, trade, remittances, and tourism. Yet, within today’s shifting geoeconomic landscape, it is evident that the traditional dynamics of this relationship are changing. The pace of Turkish capital inflows is slowing, exports are stagnating or declining, imports continue to dominate, and tourism is facing a downturn.

This indicates that Georgia must begin a broader process of economic diversification, the development of innovative sectors, and a strategic reassessment of bilateral cooperation. Only by doing so can the country preserve the benefits of its partnership with Turkey while mitigating economic risks in the years ahead.