Trump’s New Tariffs and China’s Response: A New Phase of the Trade War

U.S. President Donald Trump is escalating the trade conflict with China by imposing new tariffs. The Trump administration announced that tariffs on Chinese imports will increase by an additional 10 percentage points, raising duties on some products to as much as 45%. According to Trump, this move is necessary because Beijing has failed to stop the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. China has called this decision a “unilateral and bullying action” and stated that it will take countermeasures.

Market analysts suggest that this tariff war will not only worsen relations between the two countries but will also significantly increase costs for businesses and consumers in both the U.S. and China. China’s Ministry of Commerce strongly criticized the U.S. move, stating that Washington’s policies “violate international trade rules and disregard the interests of all parties involved.”

China’s pro-government newspaper, Global Times, which is affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party, reported that Beijing is already preparing “strong and powerful countermeasures,” which may include both tariff increases and non-tariff restrictions. According to an anonymous source, these measures could include restrictions on the import of U.S. agricultural and food products. Notably, in 2023, China was the largest market for American farm products, accounting for 17% of U.S. agricultural exports.

The first phase of the tariff war began in February 2024 when Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. This tariff was delayed for one month due to negotiations but ultimately took effect. Meanwhile, a 10% tariff was imposed on Chinese imports, justified by restrictions on fentanyl trade.

China quickly responded with countermeasures, including:

• A 15% tariff on American coal and liquefied natural gas;

• A 10% tariff on agricultural machinery and oil;

• Export restrictions on minerals used in high-tech manufacturing;

• The launch of an antitrust investigation against Google;

• The blacklisting of two American companies.

Although Beijing’s initial response seemed measured, it is expected to intensify following the new tariffs. China’s economy is already experiencing a slowdown, and public dissatisfaction is growing. As a result, Chinese leaders are likely to deliver a strict and symbolic response to Trump’s actions.

A meeting between Trump and China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has not yet taken place, and the U.S. Treasury Secretary and Secretary of State have only conducted phone negotiations with their Chinese counterparts. This creates a situation where the chances of negotiations are limited, and the risk of the trade war escalating further increases.

A similar conflict occurred between 2018 and 2020, ending with a partial agreement in which China pledged to purchase an additional $200 billion worth of American goods. However, Beijing failed to fulfill this commitment. This time, Chinese state media emphasize that the country is better prepared for this trade war: it has more diversified trade partners and continues domestic stimulus policies.

Analysts believe that the trade war will largely depend not only on economic factors but also on the Trump administration’s political calculations. Retaliatory measures are expected to become even stricter, especially if U.S.-China relations deteriorate further.

Trump’s new tariff decision marks the beginning of a new phase in the trade conflict. China appears ready to respond, and the U.S. economy is also likely to feel the pressure of the new tariffs. This confrontation in the trade sector remains one of the main global challenges, with significant implications for both the global and regional economies.