Trump, China, and the Geopolitical Dilemma
When it comes to Donald Trump, politics often takes unpredictable turns. Despite his tough rhetoric against China, Trump is

When it comes to Donald Trump, politics often takes unpredictable turns. Despite his tough rhetoric against China, Trump is now hinting that he is open to a “big, beautiful deal” with Xi Jinping. This contradicts his earlier campaign promises to hit China with devastating tariffs. However, Trump’s recent signals suggest that he is in negotiation mode—asking China to mediate in Ukraine, delaying tariff measures, and even taking a softer stance on TikTok.
Washington’s China hawks are closely watching these developments. If Trump truly seeks a strategic deal with Beijing, he will face strong resistance from his own administration, Congress, and America’s allies in Europe and Asia. However, such a scenario is not entirely impossible. Trump and Xi share a worldview centered on power balance and global influence, though their interests in technology, military industries, and AI development remain at odds.
Trump’s approach has always been full of surprises. During his first presidency, despite his aggressive policies against China, he often made contradictory statements in private conversations. He once called Taiwan a “small and troublesome island”, yet still approved policies that hurt China—selling arms to Taiwan, recognizing Uyghur persecution as genocide, and imposing tech restrictions.
Some experts argue that while China benefits from economic influence over Russia, a direct confrontation with the West is too costly. If China sees an opportunity to mediate in global diplomacy, it could enhance its international standing.
However, China would likely demand concessions in return. One of its key demands could be a shift in the U.S. stance on Taiwan. Beijing might insist that Washington not only maintain its “One China” policy but explicitly state that it “opposes” Taiwan’s independence, rather than simply “not supporting” it.
Trump’s China strategy will depend on the advisors he surrounds himself with. If his administration is filled with hardline China hawks, negotiations will be difficult. However, if Trump pursues his usual approach—seeking leverage and trade-offs—some form of deal-making remains possible. If negotiations fail, he could quickly revert to his hardline stance.
The biggest obstacle in this process may be China itself. Xi Jinping’s administration remains deeply skeptical of the U.S., believing that Washington’s long-term strategy is to weaken China. This distrust makes negotiations far more complicated for Trump.
For now, Trump is returning to his familiar rhetoric, but his desire to strike a deal is evident. For China, this presents both an opportunity and a risk—while a potential deal could bring short-term benefits, Beijing remains wary of its long-term reliability. Meanwhile, opposition within Trump’s administration and from European allies could intensify.
If Trump and Xi do attempt a major deal, it could lead to significant shifts in the global order. However, at this stage, it remains a diplomatic chess game, with the final outcome still unknown.