The Northern Sea Route: How Likely Is It to Change the Global Trade Map?

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) has been gaining increasing attention in recent years, but it is not yet fully utilized for international shipping. Interest in the route is growing as climate change accelerates ice melting in the Arctic, creating new trade opportunities. Today, it is primarily used by Russian companies, especially those involved in oil and natural gas exports. However, for international shipping companies, the route remains risky due to unpredictable ice conditions, weak infrastructure, and political factors.

Due to global warming, the period during which the route is accessible is expanding year by year. Currently, it is only available during the summer months, but projections suggest that by 2030-2040, it may be navigable almost year-round. This could have a significant economic impact, as the NSR has the potential to shorten shipping times between Europe and Asia by approximately 40%. For example, while traveling through the traditional Suez Canal takes an average of 35-40 days, using the NSR reduces this time to around 20-25 days. This, in turn, lowers transportation costs and could become a crucial part of the global logistics network.

However, control over the route presents serious challenges. Most of the NSR passes through Russian territorial waters, giving Moscow the authority to regulate and oversee its usage. The Russian government claims that the NSR is part of its internal waters, meaning that all international ships require Russian approval to navigate through it. This restriction creates problems for Western countries, which argue that the NSR should be considered part of international waters, allowing for free navigation. Such disagreements could complicate the route’s accessibility and make international shipping companies more cautious in their decision-making.

Russia is actively developing infrastructure to make the NSR more attractive. A new fleet of icebreaker ships, transport ports, and logistics centers are being built along the route. However, despite these investments, natural conditions remain a major challenge—ice, harsh climate, and unpredictable weather still hinder regular shipping operations.

If the NSR becomes widely used, it could lead to significant changes in global trade. European companies would be able to deliver products to Asia faster and more cheaply, while Asian goods would reach European markets more quickly. However, geopolitical risks, strict Russian regulations, and international relations will play a decisive role in determining how effectively the world can integrate this route into global commerce.

The Northern Sea Route is a transport alternative with great potential, but it still faces numerous obstacles. Businesses remain cautious about this route today, but one thing is clear—the future of global trade is already taking shape here, and if conditions change, the NSR could become one of the world’s main trade corridors.