In spring 2026, price dynamics in Georgia became important again. The Harmonised Consumer Price Index – a consumer price indicator calculated in a way that is compatible with international methodology – stood at 4.6% year-on-year in March, increased to 5.9% in April and remained at 5.4% in May. In month-on-month terms, April was particularly strong: prices increased by 1.8% compared with the previous month. In May, monthly growth slowed to 0.5%, but the annual rate remained elevated.
This means that price growth is no longer only the story of one product group or a seasonal movement. In spring 2026, inflationary pressure came from several directions at the same time: transport, housing and energy, healthcare, services and partly food. The strongest signal is transport – in May, transport prices were 14.7% higher year-on-year, while the operation of personal transport equipment increased by 23.1%. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels increased by 6.8%.
At the same time, not everything is becoming more expensive. Information and communication declined by 6.0% year-on-year in May, while information and communication equipment fell by 10.2%. Food also showed a month-on-month decline in May, although annual pressure remained.
BTU researchers assess that the spring 2026 price picture shows not one broad inflationary wave, but multi-source pressure. Inflation is again becoming a central issue in the cost of living, but its structure is complex: part of the pressure comes from transport and energy, part from services, part from administered prices, while technology-related groups partly soften the overall picture.
Inflation is often presented as one number: how much prices increased year-on-year. But for people, inflation is never only one number. It is the food basket, utility bills, fuel, transport, medicine, children’s goods, restaurants, rent, technology and everyday services.
This is why saying that the Harmonised Consumer Price Index increased by 5.4% year-on-year in May does not mean that every product and service became exactly 5.4% more expensive. Some increased much faster, some less, and some became cheaper.
Reading inflation correctly means seeing these differences. The main question is not only “how high is inflation,” but: where does price growth come from? Which costs put the most pressure on households? Which cost increases affect businesses? Which pressures are temporary and which may become long-term problems?
What happened in spring 2026
In January 2026, the annual increase in the Harmonised Consumer Price Index was 5.1%. In February it remained at 5.0%, in March it declined to 4.6%, in April it increased sharply to 5.9%, and in May it stood at 5.4%.
The monthly dynamics explain why spring became notable. In January, prices increased by 0.8% compared with the previous month; in February by 0.4%; in March by 0.7%; in April by 1.8%; and in May by 0.5%.
April was the turning point, when monthly price growth accelerated sharply. In May, the pace slowed, but the annual indicator remained high, meaning that the April effect had already entered the overall price level.
This allows for a cautious conclusion: in spring 2026, price pressure increased visibly, although the May monthly figure suggests that the acceleration may have partly softened.
The main driver – transport
In May 2026, transport prices increased by 14.7% year-on-year. This is one of the strongest inflationary signals in the whole picture. Within transport, the sharpest increase was in the operation of personal transport equipment – 23.1%. Passenger transport services increased by 9.2% year-on-year in May.
Transport is not only the cost of movement. It passes through many parts of the economy. If fuel, car maintenance, transportation and mobility become more expensive, this affects logistics, delivery of goods, regional connectivity, service prices and business operating costs.
This is especially important for Georgia because the country is highly dependent on imports, cars, regional mobility and logistics. Higher transport costs can become an inflationary source that moves from one group into others.
Therefore, in the analysis of spring 2026 inflation, transport should be treated as a key risk factor.
Housing and energy – hidden but strong pressure
In May, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels increased by 6.8% year-on-year. Within this group, electricity, gas and other fuels increased by 10.3%. In April, monthly growth in this category was especially high: 5.7% for the overall group and almost 9.9% for the energy subgroup.
These are costs that households cannot easily avoid. With food, consumers may switch brands, buy less or substitute products. But utility and housing-related costs are harder to change.
At the same time, energy prices also affect businesses. Energy is needed for manufacturing, services, transportation, sales, food services, hotels and offices. This means that housing and energy costs create double pressure – on households and on business.
Food: pressure remains, but May showed a monthly decline
Food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 4.7% year-on-year in May, while food increased by 4.9%. This is lower than in January, when the annual increase in the food group was 9.1%. In May, food and non-alcoholic beverages declined slightly month-on-month, by around 0.2%, while food itself declined by around 0.5%.
This means that food was no longer the fastest inflation driver in May 2026. But its importance for households remains high because food is central to everyday budgets. For low- and middle-income households, even a 4–5% annual increase in food prices is meaningful.
Therefore, the relative slowdown in food prices is a positive signal, but socially the issue cannot be considered closed.
Services and everyday costs
Price growth is not visible only in goods. Several service groups are also notable. Restaurants and accommodation services increased by 4.8% year-on-year in May. Food and beverage serving services increased by 7.5%. Recreation, sport and culture increased by 6.0%, while cultural services increased by 13.6%.
Service inflation is often more persistent than goods inflation. Goods can become more expensive or cheaper quickly due to global markets or logistics. In services, prices are often linked to wages, rent, energy, demand and business operating costs.
If services become more expensive, it may mean that business costs increased or that demand strengthened. In both cases, the question matters: how much can consumers afford, and how far can service price increases turn into broader inflationary pressure?
Technology as a balancing factor
It is notable that technology-related groups moved in the opposite direction. Information and communication declined by 6.0% year-on-year in May. Information and communication equipment fell by 10.2%, while information and communication services declined by 4.7%.
This is an important contrast. While transport, energy and some services are becoming more expensive, the technology-related part is becoming cheaper. This may partly soften the impact for households and businesses, because access to digital devices, communication and technology services becomes relatively more affordable.
This is especially important for Georgia. Strengthening the digital economy requires technology to be accessible. If technology-related groups become cheaper, this may support households, students, small businesses and the transition to digital services.
Tax effects and administered prices
Special indicators show that in May the Harmonised Consumer Price Index at constant tax rates increased by 5.3%, while the overall indicator was 5.4%. This suggests that tax changes were not a decisive factor in the overall inflation picture.
At the same time, the administered price index increased by 7.0% year-on-year in May. Administered prices are prices that are set by, or significantly influenced by, the state, local authorities, regulators or supervisory bodies. This matters because such prices often relate to energy, regulated services or costs affected by public policy.
This shows that spring 2026 inflation was not only a market-driven process; regulated and administered price components were also present.
Is inflation returning, or is this temporary acceleration?
The simple answer is this: it is too early to say that inflation has fully returned as a broad and uncontrolled wave. But price pressure has clearly strengthened and should not be ignored.
April’s 1.8% month-on-month increase was a strong signal. In May, monthly growth fell to 0.5%, showing some softening. But the annual indicator remained at 5.4%, meaning that the overall price level was already higher.
The situation should therefore be assessed carefully rather than dramatically. The key task is to separate the sources of inflation: transport and energy create more systemic risk; food pressure has relatively slowed; services may become a more persistent source of inflation; technology-related groups partly balance the overall picture.
Where is the opportunity
This price picture also shows several opportunities for Georgia.
The first is improving transport and logistics efficiency. If transport is a major source of inflation, the country should think about better logistics, reduced dependence on fuel, public transport, regional connectivity and supply-chain optimization.
The second is energy efficiency. Higher housing and energy costs show that households and businesses need more efficient energy use, better buildings and lower long-term costs.
The third is local production and food supply. Annual pressure on food remains. Strengthening local agriculture, processing, storage and logistics can also support price stability.
The fourth is the digital economy. Cheaper technology-related groups can be used for SME digital transformation, education and productivity growth.
Where are the risks
The main risk is pass-through from one group to another. If transport and energy become more expensive, this can affect food, services, manufacturing and retail prices.
The second risk is weaker real wages. If prices rise faster than income, household purchasing power declines.
The third risk is higher business costs. Transport, energy and services are operating costs for businesses. Their increase can eventually feed into prices.
The fourth risk is social inequality. Inflation does not affect everyone equally. Low-income households spend a larger share of their budget on food, utilities and transport.
Why this matters for Georgia
In Georgia, inflation is not only a macroeconomic indicator. It is directly connected to quality of life, household financial calm, business pricing, real wages and economic expectations.
If price growth strengthens in transport and energy, it passes into almost every part of the economy. If services become more expensive, this affects daily life and tourism competitiveness. If food pressure slows, that is positive, but food remains an important household cost. If technology becomes cheaper, it can become a development opportunity.
This is why the spring 2026 inflation picture should be read as a warning: price stability is not automatic and requires constant analysis — not only of the headline indicator, but also of the sources of price growth.
BTUAI assessment
BTUAI assesses that the acceleration of the Harmonised Consumer Price Index in spring 2026 is an important signal for Georgia, but it should be interpreted structurally. The annual rate reached 5.9% in April and stood at 5.4% in May. April’s 1.8% monthly increase shows strong short-term pressure, while May’s 0.5% increase suggests partial moderation.
The main inflationary sources are visible in transport, energy, housing-related costs, healthcare and services. Annual food pressure remains, although May showed a month-on-month decline. Technology-related groups partly offset the overall inflation picture, as information and communication became cheaper year-on-year.
BTU researchers assess that Georgia’s main task is to identify inflation sources precisely. If price growth from transport and energy spreads to other sectors, inflation may become more persistent. If food and technology-related easing strengthens, pressure may decline.
The main conclusion is this: inflation is again becoming important, but it is not driven by one cause. Spring 2026 price growth is multi-source and requires separate analysis of transport, energy, services, food and technology prices.
Key findings
- The Harmonised Consumer Price Index stood at 4.6% year-on-year in March 2026, increased to 5.9% in April and stood at 5.4% in May.
- The strongest monthly increase was recorded in April — 1.8%.
- In May, monthly growth slowed to 0.5%, but the annual rate remained elevated.
- Transport increased by 14.7% year-on-year in May.
- Operation of personal transport equipment increased by 23.1%.
- Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels increased by 6.8%.
- Food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 4.7% year-on-year in May, but declined slightly month-on-month.
- Information and communication declined by 6.0% year-on-year.
- The inflation picture is multi-source: transport and energy accelerate it, while technology-related prices partly soften it.
Data snapshot
Annual increase in the Harmonised Consumer Price Index:
- January 2026 – 5.1%.
- February – 5.0%.
- March – 4.6%.
- April – 5.9%.
- May – 5.4%.
Monthly increase:
- January 2026 – 0.8%.
- February – 0.4%.
- March – 0.7%.
- April – 1.8%.
- May – 0.5%.
- Transport, May, annual increase – 14.7%.
- Operation of personal transport equipment – 23.1%.
- Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels – 6.8%.
- Electricity, gas and other fuels – 10.3%.
- Food and non-alcoholic beverages – 4.7%.
- Food – 4.9%.
- Health – 5.1%.
- Restaurants and accommodation services – 4.8%.
- Information and communication – minus 6.0%.
- Information and communication equipment – minus 10.2%.
- Administered price index, May, annual increase – 7.0%.
Methodology
This report was prepared as part of BTUAI Research. The analysis is based on demographic, regional, economic and behavioral data, as well as general trends observed in publicly available sources. The materials are processed using analytical methods applied by BTU researchers, with the support of BTUAI.
The purpose of the research is not to provide personal assessments, but to identify broader trends and practical directions for business, education and society.
In this specific material, the January–May 2026 Harmonised Consumer Price Index data is analyzed in annual and monthly terms. Particular attention is paid to transport, energy, food, services, technology-related groups and administered prices.
Limitations
This material is analytical and educational in nature. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, tax or individual economic advice. Before making specific decisions, consultation with a relevant specialist is required.
The data covers price dynamics from January to May 2026 and is not sufficient to determine a long-term inflation trend. Sustainable conclusions require analysis of subsequent months, base effects, seasonality, real incomes and the monetary environment.
The Harmonised Consumer Price Index shows overall price dynamics but does not reflect the individual spending structure of every household.
Sources
Harmonised Consumer Price Index data for January–May 2026 published by the National Statistics Office of Georgia.
BTUAI analytical processing for the context of inflation, price structure, household expenses, business operating costs and Georgia’s economic environment.
Frequently asked questions
What does the Harmonised Consumer Price Index mean?
It is an indicator of consumer price changes calculated in a way that is compatible with international methodology and allows comparison across countries.
Does a 5.4% annual increase mean that everything became 5.4% more expensive?
No. It is an average indicator. Some groups increased faster, such as transport; some increased less; and some became cheaper, such as information and communication.
Why was April important?
In April, monthly price growth was 1.8%, the strongest monthly acceleration in the January–May 2026 period.
What is the main source of inflation in May?
The strongest source appears in transport, especially the operation of personal transport equipment, as well as energy and housing-related costs.
What softens inflation?
Technology-related groups – information and communication, as well as information and communication equipment – declined year-on-year and partly balance the overall picture.
Keywords
inflation Georgia; Harmonised Consumer Price Index; consumer prices; price growth; transport inflation; energy prices; food prices; utility costs; technology prices; administered prices; household expenses; business costs; Georgian economy; BTUAI; Business and Technology University; cost of living.
Citation format
BTUAI Research Team. “Is Inflation Returning in Georgia? Why the Harmonised Consumer Price Index Accelerated in Spring 2026.” Business and Technology University, BTUAI.ge, 2026.
Prepared by the academic team of Business and Technology University and the BTUAI Research Team.
Tbilisi, Georgia
BTUAI is an analytical platform of Business and Technology University that studies the impact of artificial intelligence, digital transformation, innovation, startup ecosystems, data analytics and emerging technologies on business, the economy, education and society. BTUAI materials are designed to explain complex technological and economic changes in a clear, reliable and Georgia-focused way.