Global Tourism in 2025: Recovery or Redirection?

In 2024, international tourism almost fully recovered from the COVID-era decline—according to UNWTO data, international tourist arrivals approached 1.3 billion, just 8% below the 2019 peak. However, this recovery has been uneven: traffic in Europe and the Americas is nearly back to pre-pandemic levels, while several East Asian countries continue to lag due to visa restrictions, limited flight capacity, and domestic regulations. Projections suggest that by the end of 2025, global international tourism will exceed pre-pandemic levels, but with a changed structure and traveler behavior.

First, the style of travel itself has shifted. The economic environment—including inflation, rising aviation costs, and expensive accommodations—is pushing travelers to plan shorter or less frequent trips. According to IATA, average airfares in 2024 were about 27% higher than in 2019, with an additional 3–5% increase expected in 2025. One major driver is the rising cost of jet fuel and emission fees, especially in Europe, where the Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) has expanded to include aviation more broadly.

At the same time, traveler behavior is showing growing environmental awareness. A global survey by Booking.com found that 76% of respondents now consider environmental impact when planning trips. This trend is particularly strong among younger generations and affects transport choices (e.g., increased popularity of trains in Europe, replacing short-haul flights) as well as accommodation preferences (favoring small, locally-owned or eco-friendly lodgings over global hotel chains).

Another key shift is in traveler profiles. The rise of digital nomads is transforming international mobility. According to Nomad List, as of early 2025, over 40 million people around the world are working and living semi-permanently in foreign countries. That figure is up 40% compared to 2023. In response, countries like Portugal, Thailand, and Estonia have introduced special visa and tax schemes to attract remote workers. These travelers don’t just take short vacations—they integrate into local cities, influencing real estate markets and urban economies.

Tourist flows are also being redistributed. Cities overwhelmed by overtourism—such as Barcelona, Venice, and Amsterdam—are imposing new regulations or fees. For example, Venice began trialing a €5 entry fee for day-trippers in late 2024, which has already led to a slight drop in visitor numbers and a rise in interest in nearby regions.

Meanwhile, geopolitical instability is influencing travel routes. In late 2024, tensions in the Middle East led to several airlines rerouting flights, increasing travel time and costs on routes connecting Europe to Asia and Australia. Add to that high oil prices and heightened security protocols, and passengers are becoming more selective with their travel decisions.

According to UNWTO projections, global tourism will contribute approximately 9.2% to global GDP by the end of 2025. This is still below the pre-pandemic share of 10.4%, but the qualitative transformation—greater eco-consciousness, technological integration, and new traveler types—suggests that tourism is no longer merely about volume. It has become a more complex and long-term process that intersects with social, environmental, and economic trends.