Global energy markets often react very quickly to political news. If there is hope that a war may stop, a strait may reopen or oil supply may recover, prices can fall within days. But the real recovery of energy markets does not happen through political announcements alone. Oil must move through maritime routes, tankers must return, insurance costs must fall, transport risk must decline, fields must increase production, refineries must raise throughput and countries must rebuild stocks.
In an international energy scenario involving a possible US-Iran agreement and the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the market appears to receive relief: Brent crude falls from levels above $110 to below $80. But this may be a temporary optimism. Supply normalization can take months, while the risk premium may remain embedded in oil prices for a long time.
For Georgia, this is especially important because the country depends on imported crude oil and fuel products. Higher global fuel prices directly affect transport, logistics, food distribution, tourism, construction, small-business costs and ultimately consumer prices.
In January-February 2026, fuel imports accounted for USD 209.0 million of Georgia’s imports, or 8.4 percent of total imports. According to published analysis based on official statistics, in January-April 2026 Georgia purchased 590 thousand tons of refined fuels worth USD 471.3 million; value increased by 19 percent year-on-year, while volume increased by 12 percent. This means that fuel is not only a household expense for Georgia – it is one of the main transmission channels of the economy.
BTUAI assesses that the key question for Georgia is not only “how much petrol will cost tomorrow.” The more important question is how the country should prepare for a period when global oil prices may remain high even after a political agreement.
Main idea
The oil price is not just a number on a trading screen. It is an indicator of transport, supply chains, logistics, inflation, consumer expectations, business costs and national energy security.
When global oil becomes more expensive, Georgia feels it through several channels.
First, fuel prices rise or decline more slowly than expected.
Second, transportation becomes more expensive.
Third, the cost of delivering imported goods increases.
Fourth, logistics costs move into food, construction materials, services and tourism.
Fifth, businesses begin revising prices because fuel is part of daily operating costs.
Sixth, consumers start expecting further price increases, which reinforces inflationary behavior.
Oil-market changes are therefore not only an energy issue for Georgia. They are also about macroeconomic stability, business planning, regional logistics and consumer welfare.
Why oil does not become cheap quickly even when a deal appears possible
One of the main lessons of international energy markets is this: a political signal about ending a war or reopening a strait can change prices quickly, but physical supply recovers much more slowly.
If a strategic corridor such as the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted by war, blockade, mines, insurance risk or security threats, recovery goes through several stages.
First, the maritime route must become safe. If mines or other risks remain on the route, shipowners will not fully return because of political statements alone. They need practical proof that the route is actually safe.
Second, insurance premiums must decline. Entering a high-risk area is expensive for tankers. If insurance remains costly, physical oil transport remains costly.
Third, tankers must return to the region. During conflict, many ships move to safer and more profitable routes. Bringing them back is constrained by time, prices and contracts.
Fourth, producing countries must increase output and refineries must increase throughput. The oil market cannot be switched on with a single button.
Fifth, buyers must regain confidence. Large importers often wait until they see that a deal has not only been announced but is actually working.
Therefore, a quick fall in price may be an emotional market reaction, while real energy costs remain elevated.
Why a Hormuz-type risk matters for Georgia
The Strait of Hormuz is far from Georgia, but Georgia can still feel its impact through fuel prices, logistics and inflation. This is a key feature of the global economy: a small open economy often depends on routes that it does not directly control.
Georgia is not a major oil producer. External shocks in energy markets therefore pass quickly into domestic prices. If global oil prices remain high, Georgia cannot fully isolate itself from this trend.
In addition, transport and imports play a significant role in Georgia’s economy. The country imports many goods, while part of local production also depends on fuel. Agriculture needs fuel for machinery; logistics needs it for transportation; construction needs it for moving materials; tourism needs it for mobility; retail needs it for distribution.
This is why the oil price often functions as a “hidden tax” on the whole economy.
Georgia’s fuel economy:
In 2024, Georgia’s total imports reached USD 16.9 billion. This shows that the country is a highly import-dependent economy.
In January-February 2026, petroleum products accounted for USD 209.0 million of Georgia’s imports. This represented 8.4 percent of total imports and was the second-largest commodity group after motor cars.
During the same period, petroleum and petroleum oils were also significant in exports: in January-February, exports of fuel products from Georgia reached USD 93.3 million, or 9.1 percent of total exports. This indicates that Georgia is not only a fuel consumer, but also participates in regional energy trade flows.
In January-April 2026, Georgia purchased 590 thousand tons of petroleum products worth USD 471.3 million. Compared with the previous year, value increased by 19 percent and volume by 12 percent.
During the same period, the average import price was USD 697 per ton in January and rose to USD 950 per ton in April – an increase of about 36 percent in four months. This is especially important because import prices ultimately affect retail prices, business costs and household budgets.
In May 2026, Georgia’s annual inflation stood at 5.7 percent. Fuel is not always the only cause of inflation, but energy costs are one of the main transmission channels because they affect transport, distribution and the final cost of goods.
How high oil prices transmit into Georgia
- Transport
Fuel prices are seen most quickly in transport. Private cars, taxis, public-transport costs, freight transportation and internal logistics are directly dependent on fuel.
If fuel becomes more expensive or does not fall as quickly as markets expected, transport costs remain elevated.
- Food distribution
Food often passes through many stages: farm, warehouse, processing facility, wholesale market, shop and consumer. Higher fuel prices affect almost every step of this chain.
In Georgia, where part of food is imported and local production also depends on logistics, fuel prices have an indirect effect on food prices.
- Tourism
For tourism, fuel matters both in international flights and domestic mobility. If the cost of airlines, tourist transport or regional travel increases, the final price of tourism packages, hotels, excursions or services may rise.
- Construction
Construction depends heavily on moving materials. Cement, metals, wood, machinery, labor and construction logistics all include fuel costs. High oil prices can be one factor behind higher construction costs.
- Small and medium-sized businesses
For SMEs, fuel prices are often difficult to manage. Small shops, restaurants, distributors, courier services or regional businesses may lack large financial buffers. Higher fuel costs either reduce margins or push businesses to raise prices.
- Inflation expectations
Fuel is visible every day. When consumers see expensive petrol or diesel, they feel that everything is becoming more expensive. This expectation becomes part of economic behavior: businesses raise prices earlier, consumers accelerate purchases and wage pressure increases.
Scenarios for Georgia
Scenario 1: Oil gradually becomes cheaper, but not to pre-shock levels
If a global agreement holds, maritime routes become safer and production recovers, oil prices may fall. But this does not mean a rapid return to the USD 60 per barrel price level . A more realistic scenario is several months of relatively high prices followed by gradual stabilization.
For Georgia, this means fuel-price relief may arrive late and businesses should not rely on very quick price declines.
Scenario 2: Oil remains in the USD 80–90 range
If supply recovers slowly, insurance remains expensive and strategic reserves begin to be refilled, oil prices may remain elevated for several months. For Georgia, this means transport and logistics costs staying high.
Scenario 3: The risk premium returns
If the agreement fails, a Hormuz-like corridor becomes tense again or new military incidents occur, a risk premium may return to oil prices. International analysis suggests such a premium can range from several dollars to around USD 10 per barrel.
For Georgia, this is the most risky scenario because a small open economy quickly absorbs external price shocks.
Critical Watchpoints for Georgian Businesses
Georgian businesses should prepare not only for today’s price, but for price volatility.
The first step is to calculate fuel costs accurately. In many companies, fuel appears only as a direct expense, but in reality it is embedded in delivery, warehousing, sales, service and staff mobility.
The second step is price-scenario planning. A company should know what happens if fuel prices increase by 10 percent, 20 percent or 30 percent.
The third step is logistics optimization: route planning, order consolidation, warehouse location, fuel-use monitoring and review of transport contracts.
The fourth step is energy efficiency. During fuel shocks, the most resilient companies are those with lower energy waste.
The fifth step is customer communication. If price increases are unavoidable, companies should explain why costs are rising and how they are trying to reduce them.
Policy Priorities for Georgia
For the state, high oil prices are not only about the fuel market. They are about social and macroeconomic stability.
Several steps are needed:
regular monitoring of fuel imports and stocks;
assessment of supplier-country diversification;
analysis of price transmission into transport, food and construction;
clear public communication on why fuel prices change;
stronger energy-efficiency programs;
faster development of electric and public transport;
risk scenarios for critical sectors;
support for logistics efficiency in business;
management of inflation expectations.
It is especially important that the state does not rely only on the hope that the global market will quickly return to low prices. Energy security is tested precisely when an external shock lasts longer than expected.
Key risks for Georgia
The first risk is inflationary pressure. High fuel prices can affect transport, food and services both directly and indirectly.
The second risk is reduced margins for small businesses. When fuel becomes expensive, small companies often cannot fully pass the cost on to consumers.
The third risk is higher logistics costs. This is especially relevant for regions where delivery distances are longer.
The fourth risk is higher tourism costs. Domestic mobility, excursions and transport are part of the tourism product.
The fifth risk is strategic dependence. If the country is highly dependent on imported fuel and suppliers are concentrated, external shocks are felt more sharply.
Key opportunities for Georgia
The first opportunity is faster energy efficiency. Higher prices often create motivation to save fuel and plan logistics better.
The second opportunity is development of public and electric transport. If fuel shocks become recurring, alternative transport is not only an environmental choice – it is part of economic security.
The third opportunity is data-driven cost management for business. Companies that clearly understand the impact of fuel prices can protect margins better.
The fourth opportunity is improvement of regional logistics. High fuel prices reveal where there is excessive distance, poor planning and inefficient delivery.
The fifth opportunity is a new discussion about energy diversification. The country needs more attention to energy sources, transport fuel, electric mobility, storage and stocks.
BTUAI assessment
BTUAI assesses that high oil prices are not only a fuel-market issue for Georgia. They are a test of the sensitivity of the whole economic system. If the global market stabilizes slowly even after a deal, Georgian businesses and the state should act as if high prices are not a temporary exception, but a working reality for the coming months.
Georgia’s main danger is delayed reaction. If companies wait for rapid price declines and do not review logistics, stocks, price scenarios and energy efficiency, high fuel costs will pass through margins and consumers.
The main opportunity is to use this shock for systemic improvement: smarter logistics, energy-efficient business, better public transport, fuel-import diversification and data-driven policy.
The main conclusion is that a deal may reduce global panic, but for Georgia it does not mean cheap energy quickly. A small open economy should work not only on price forecasts, but on resilience.
Key findings
- In global oil markets, a political agreement can lower prices quickly, but physical supply recovery takes months.
- For Georgia, oil and petroleum products are an important part of imports and affect transport, logistics, food, tourism and small business.
- In January-February 2026, petroleum and petroleum oils accounted for 8.4 percent of Georgia’s imports.
- In January-April 2026, the value and volume of petroleum-product imports increased, while the average import price rose sharply in four months.
- High oil prices affect inflation not only directly, but also through supply chains.
- Georgian businesses should treat fuel prices as a scenario risk, not only a current expense.
- The state should strengthen energy efficiency, transport alternatives and fuel-market monitoring.
- Universities should create knowledge for analyzing energy shocks and supporting practical business decisions.
Data and evidence base
In 2024, Georgia’s total imports were USD 16.9 billion.
In January-February 2026, petroleum and petroleum oils accounted for USD 209.0 million of Georgia’s imports, or 8.4 percent of total imports.
In January-February 2026, exports of petroleum and petroleum oils from Georgia reached USD 93.3 million, or 9.1 percent of total exports.
In January-April 2026, Georgia purchased 590 thousand tons of petroleum products worth USD 471.3 million. Compared with the previous year, value increased by 19 percent and volume by 12 percent.
In January 2026, the average import price of petroleum products was USD 697 per ton; in April it reached USD 950 per ton.
In May 2026, Georgia’s annual inflation was 5.7 percent.
According to the international energy scenario discussed in this analysis, oil-supply recovery may be delayed by maritime security, insurance, tanker availability, refinery capacity and strategic stockpiling.
Methodology
This report was prepared as part of BTUAI Research. The analysis is based on international trends in energy markets, oil prices, maritime transport, insurance, global supply chains and public data on Georgia’s fuel imports.
The materials are processed using analytical methods applied by BTU researchers, with the support of BTUAI.
The purpose of the research is not to provide a precise forecast of oil prices, but to explain the channels through which a global oil shock may affect Georgia’s economy, businesses and consumer prices.
Limitations
Oil prices depend on political, military, financial, climate and market-expectation factors that change quickly.
This material does not constitute a forecast of fuel prices, inflation, exchange rates or investment decisions.
The implications described for Georgia are analytical scenarios and require continuous monitoring based on updated data.
This material is analytical and educational in nature. It does not constitute investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Before making specific economic, business or investment decisions, consultation with a relevant specialist is required.
Sources
International energy analysis of oil prices, the Strait of Hormuz, global supply chains, tankers, insurance and strategic reserves.
National Statistics Office of Georgia data on external trade, energy balance and import structure.
Public business-media analysis of Georgia’s fuel imports based on official statistics.
BTUAI analytical interpretation based on Georgia’s economy, business, logistics, energy security and inflation-risk context.
Frequently asked questions
If a global agreement is reached, why do fuel prices not fall quickly?
Because prices do not depend only on political news. Maritime safety, tanker returns, insurance costs, production recovery and refinery throughput all matter.
Why are oil prices important for Georgia?
Georgia depends on imported petroleum products. Fuel prices affect transport, logistics, food, tourism, construction and small business.
What should businesses do?
Businesses should calculate the fuel share in costs, build price scenarios, improve logistics and increase energy efficiency.
What should the state do?
The state should strengthen market monitoring, energy-efficiency programs, public transport, diversification and management of inflation expectations.
What is the main conclusion for Georgia?
A deal may reduce global panic, but a rapid return to low oil prices is not guaranteed. Georgia should focus on energy resilience.
Keywords
oil prices; fuel imports; energy security; Georgia and oil; Strait of Hormuz; inflation; logistics; fuel market in Georgia; Brent; petroleum products; BTUAI; Business and Technology University.
Citation format
BTUAI Research Team. “Deal or No Deal, Oil Prices May Stay High: What Georgia Should Consider in the Coming Months.” Business and Technology University, BTUAI.ge, 2026.
Prepared by the academic team of Business and Technology University and the BTUAI Research Team.
Tbilisi, Georgia
BTUAI is an analytical platform of Business and Technology University that studies the impact of artificial intelligence, digital transformation, innovation, startup ecosystems, data analytics and emerging technologies on business, the economy, education and society. BTUAI materials are designed to explain complex technological and economic changes in a clear, reliable and Georgia-focused way.