The strategic challenge is shifting: wine producers are not only competing with other origins. In several major markets, consumers are drinking wine less often, spreading occasions across more categories and increasingly choosing lower-alcohol or alcohol-free options.
Key Takeaway
The global wine business is no longer simply a contest for market share between producing countries. Global wine consumption fell to an estimated 208 million hectolitres in 2025, down 2.7% from 2024 and roughly 14% from 2018, according to the OIV. Nine of the ten largest wine markets recorded lower consumption in 2025. A producer can therefore outperform competitors and still be operating inside a shrinking category.
Georgia enters this reset from a mixed but relatively strong position. In 2025, the country exported 89.7 million litres of wine worth $267.91 million. Volume fell 5% and value 3%, while the average export price increased from $2.91 to $2.98 per litre. Q1 2026 improved: volume rose 5% and value 7%. The issue is not that Georgian wine has stopped growing. It is that long-term demand is changing underneath it.
| Signal | Indicator | Period | Why it matters |
| World wine consumption | 208 mhl; -2.7% | 2025 | 9 of top 10 markets declined |
| Global consumption change | ≈-14% | 2018–2025 | Structural pressure on the category |
| Georgian wine exports | 89.7m litres; $267.91m | 2025 | Volume -5%; value -3% |
| Georgian wine premium space | Higher pricing in strategic markets | 2025 | US $6.20; Japan $5.82; UK $5.10; Germany $4.66 |
| Current Georgian signal | $53.2m revenue | Q1 2026 | Q1 2026 value +7% |
Winning share is not enough if the category shrinks
The classic export question is how Georgia wins share from France, Italy, Spain, Chile or another origin. A second question is becoming equally important: how large will the wine category itself be in five or ten years?
In the United States, Gallup reported a record-low 54% of adults saying they drink alcohol in 2025. The Wall Street Journal described the balance-sheet consequences for aged-spirit producers that had stocked up for stronger demand and are now facing consumers who moderate more, switch categories and choose lower-alcohol formats.
Yet the simple narrative that “Gen Z does not drink” is wrong. IWSR’s July 2026 research put alcohol participation among legal-drinking-age Gen Z consumers at 74% across fifteen key markets, close to the 76% rate for the adult population. The deeper change is in frequency, occasion, format and category choice.
| Behaviour factor | Risk | Current trend | Strategic implication |
| Younger consumer | Material | Frequency softer in many markets | Recruitment challenge for wine |
| Consumption occasion | Less traditional | Moderation more embedded | Shorter, flexible, occasion-based |
| Price / brand | Less category loyalty | Higher price sensitivity | Value story matters more |
| Format / category | More fragmented | no/low, RTD, lighter styles | Risk of losing new occasions |
Wine has a specific recruitment problem
IWSR data suggest that many wine markets are increasingly dependent on drinkers aged 55 and above, while younger legal-age consumers drink wine less frequently in several countries. In Australia, the share of consumers up to age 24 drinking wine at least monthly halved between 2010 and 2023. Younger consumers are also less attached to traditional region and varietal language and more open to experimental styles, sustainable propositions and no/low alternatives.
For Georgian wine, this implies a two-track response. The core product should become more valuable through origin, qvevri, microzones, indigenous varieties, food, design and experience. Alongside that core, producers can test adjacent formats for occasions where consumers want lighter, smaller or alcohol-free choices. The second track should not dilute Georgian wine’s identity; it should prevent the brand from disappearing from new consumption occasions.
Georgia’s pricing data show a path beyond volume
Georgia’s average export price was $2.98 per litre in 2025. In strategic markets, it was much higher: $6.20 in the United States, $5.82 in Japan, $5.10 in the United Kingdom and $4.66 in Germany. That suggests the strongest response to a softer volume market is not simply to ship more. It is to create more value per bottle in markets that pay for origin, quality and story.
| Strategy | Priority | Tool | Expected result |
| Strengthen identity | Core | origin + qvevri + indigenous varieties | Make tradition legible to new consumers |
| Premiumization | High | premium export markets | Higher unit value in softer-volume market |
| Wine as experience | Experience | tourism, food, design, culture | Raise brand economic value |
| New formats | small format / low-ABV / separate no-low line | Portfolio extension | Retain new consumption occasions |
The real competitor may be a different occasion
Wine is often tied to meals, restaurants, gifting and longer social drinking occasions. Many younger consumers are more open to flexible formats: smaller servings, RTDs, lower ABV, cocktails or no alcohol at all. In that context, the competitor may no longer be another bottle of wine. It may be a functional drink, coffee, kombucha, no-alcohol beer or simply an alcohol-free evening.
That means wine marketing must measure not only which wine the consumer bought, but whether the consumer chose wine at all for that occasion.
What Georgian wine companies should do
First, segment demand by age and occasion, not only by country. Germany, Poland or the United States are not single consumers.
Second, keep premiumization central. In a category with softer volumes, competing for cheap volume becomes harder, while Georgian wine’s distinct origin is better suited to higher unit value.
Third, test new formats where brand identity allows: smaller bottles, lighter styles, sparkling or aperitif occasions, lower-ABV products or a separate no/low line. These should be market tests, not trend-chasing.
Fourth, sell wine as an experience. Tourism, food, design, culture and origin increase value even if consumers drink less frequently.
Fifth, measure repeat purchase, average price, younger-consumer recruitment and new consumption occasions. Exported litres alone do not reveal the quality of future demand.
| Indicator | Frequency | Metric | Why measure it |
| Repeat purchase | quarterly | repeat purchase | Real brand loyalty |
| Unit value | monthly / annual | average $/litre | Progress toward higher-value strategy |
| Age profile | annual | younger consumers | Future category recruitment |
| New consumption occasions | quarterly / annual | new occasions | Quality of long-term demand |
BTU Researchers’ Assessment
According to an assessment by BTU researchers, Georgian wine’s long-term risk is not simply stronger competition from other producing countries. The deeper risk is that the wine category itself is shrinking in parts of the world, consumer attention is fragmenting across alternatives, and moderation is becoming an embedded lifestyle behaviour.
For Georgia, this risk is also an opportunity. Mass-volume producers are highly exposed to shrinking litres. Georgia can still grow in a lower-volume world if it raises unit value, strengthens origin, builds experiences and offers the right product for the right occasion.
Conclusion
The future wine market may look less like a championship in which countries simply steal share from each other. Competition is increasingly between wine and alternative lifestyles.
Georgia does not need to abandon tradition. It needs to make tradition more valuable, more understandable to new consumers and relevant to more occasions. The future winner may not be the country that produces the most wine, but the one that understands best why people still choose wine at all.
Data and Main Sources
- OIV – State of the World Wine Sector in 2025.
- National Wine Agency of Georgia – 2025 export results and Q1 2026 exports.
- IWSR – moderation, no/low wine and Gen Z research, 2025–2026.
- The Wall Street Journal – Distillers Are Over a Barrel, August 31, 2026, user-supplied edition.
Prepared by the academic team of Business and Technology University and the BTUAI Research Team, Tbilisi, Georgia.