Georgia’s first 2026 economic data are not only a story of growth. At first glance, the main headline is simple: in the first quarter of 2026, real GDP increased by 9.0% year-on-year, while GDP at current prices reached GEL 24.8 billion. But the more important question is whether this is only rapid growth or whether structural change is also beginning inside the economy.
The answer to this question cannot be found in one number. GDP structure, external trade and local exports must be read together. In January-May 2026, Georgia’s external merchandise trade reached USD 10.44 billion. Exports increased by 19.8% to USD 3.11 billion, while imports declined by 1.9% to USD 7.33 billion. This is a positive signal, although the trade deficit remains high at USD 4.22 billion.
The strongest sign of structural change appears in local exports. In January-May 2026, local exports – exports excluding re-exports – increased by 66.1% and reached USD 1.93 billion. Their share in total exports rose to 62.1%, compared with 44.8% in the same period of the previous year. This is not only export growth; it is a signal that value created or significantly transformed inside the country has become more visible within exports.
BTU researchers assess that Georgia’s first 2026 data show that the economy is both growing and partially changing. It is growing because GDP, exports, services, transport and the digital sector show strong momentum. It is changing because the share of local exports is rising sharply and information and communication has become one of the largest sectors in the economy. But this change is not yet complete: the economy remains strongly dependent on imports, the large trade role of vehicles and a limited number of major export groups.
Georgia’s main task is to turn growth into real transformation – into more diversified exports, stronger local production, higher-value logistics, a deeper digital sector and a more sustainable economic model.
Main analysis
Economic growth and economic change are not the same. Growth means the economy is larger, more goods and services are produced, more transactions take place and more money moves. Change means that the structure inside the economy is shifting: new sectors become stronger, local value increases, exports diversify, productivity rises and the country becomes less dependent on factors that can change quickly.
Georgia’s 9.0% growth in Q1 2026 shows that economic activity is high. But the sectoral picture is more interesting than the headline figure. Information and communication grew by 36.0%, transport and storage by 18.0%, accommodation and food services by 12.4%, and financial and insurance activities by 11.7%. At the same time, agriculture declined by 3.3% and construction by 2.0%. This means that the main growth energy comes from services, the digital sector, logistics and financial activity, while more traditional or capital-intensive parts of the economy are not moving with the same strength.
Information and communication deserves special attention. Its share in GDP reached 10.4%. This is no longer a small, supporting or purely future-oriented sector. Digital services, IT, communications and data-based activities are gaining real weight in Georgia’s economy. If this trend continues, technology and digital services may become one of the main sources of structural change.
The 18.0% growth in transport and storage is also more than a sectoral figure. It shows that Georgia’s geographic role is becoming more visible in economic outcomes. The Middle Corridor, re-exports, regional shipments, warehouses and logistics services are becoming important parts of the economy. But here too, growth and change must be separated. If Georgia remains only a transit route, growth will be limited. If transport is combined with certification, quality control, digital tracking, insurance and financial services, regional distribution and light processing, logistics can become a higher-value economic platform.
Trade remains the largest sector. In Q1 2026, wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles accounted for 13.2% of GDP. This shows that the economy still stands strongly on goods movement, consumer demand, imports, re-exports and domestic distribution. This sector is essential, but if a large part of growth is based mainly on importing and reselling, the economy changes less. Real transformation begins when trade is connected to local production, brands, services, data analytics, warehouse management and deeper customer knowledge.
External trade shows why the depth of growth needs to be checked. In January-May 2026, exports grew rapidly and imports declined slightly. This is a positive combination. But imports still amounted to USD 7.33 billion, while exports were USD 3.11 billion. In other words, the country still buys much more than it sells. The USD 4.22 billion trade deficit indicates that Georgia’s economic model still depends heavily on external supply.
At the same time, signs of change appear inside exports. Local exports grew by 66.1%, and their share in total exports rose to 62.1%, meaning that local value became more visible within the export structure. This is especially important because a large part of Georgia’s external trade has long been linked to vehicle re-exports, raw materials, commodity groups and the rerouting of imported goods. Local export growth may be a step toward a more sustainable export model.
However, the composition of local exports shows that the transformation is still in an early or mixed phase. In January-May 2026, the largest local export category was petroleum and petroleum products at USD 352.2 million, followed by precious-metal ores and concentrates at USD 255.6 million, ferroalloys at USD 130.8 million, and copper ores and concentrates at USD 112.3 million. At the same time, wine exports within local exports declined by 5.0%, and spirits declined by 10.6%. This means that local export growth still relies heavily on resource and commodity groups, while branded, higher-value and diversified directions need stronger support.
These data show that Georgia’s economy is certainly growing, but the transformation is partial. The digital sector is strengthening, transport and logistics are expanding, and the share of local exports is rising sharply. At the same time, the trade deficit is high, vehicles still play a major role, exports are partly concentrated in commodity groups, and agriculture and construction are in decline.
For Georgia, it will be important for economic policy not to be satisfied with the growth rate alone. If the country aims for real transformation, productivity must rise, education and the labor market must come closer to the needs of new sectors, local business must create more value, and exports must move toward more diversified, service-based, technology-based and quality-based activities.
Key findings
The first 2026 data show that Georgia’s economy is growing rapidly, but the quality of transformation inside that growth is uneven. The digital sector, transport, services and financial activity are strengthening quickly, while agriculture and construction show decline. This means that economic change is happening, but not all sectors are participating equally.
The sharp rise in local exports is an important structural signal. Their share rising to 62.1% shows that locally created value has become more important within exports. But the composition of local exports still shows commodity concentration – petroleum products, ores, ferroalloys and other product groups remain important.
External trade shows both progress and vulnerability. Exports are rising and imports are declining, but the deficit remains high. This means the economy is still not sufficiently balanced between export capacity and import needs.
The most promising axis of economic transformation may be the connection between digital services, logistics and local exports. If ICT growth, transport growth and local export growth are shaped into one economic strategy, Georgia can move beyond growth and toward deeper structural transformation.
Data and evidence base
In the first quarter of 2026, Georgia’s real GDP increased by 9.0%, while GDP at current prices reached GEL 24.77 billion. GDP per capita at current prices was GEL 6,286, or USD 2,329.
By sector, the highest growth was recorded in information and communication at 36.0%, transport and storage at 18.0%, arts, entertainment and recreation at 14.5%, healthcare and social services at 12.6%, accommodation and food services at 12.4%, and financial and insurance activities at 11.7%. Agriculture declined by 3.3% and construction by 2.0%.
In January-May 2026, external merchandise trade reached USD 10.44 billion. Exports amounted to USD 3.11 billion, imports to USD 7.33 billion, and the trade deficit to USD 4.22 billion. Exports increased by 19.8%, while imports declined by 1.9%.
The top export partner countries were Kyrgyzstan at USD 355.2 million, China at USD 327.5 million and Azerbaijan at USD 269.3 million. The top import partners were Türkiye at USD 1.16 billion, Russia at USD 983.4 million and China at USD 849.7 million.
Local exports reached USD 1.93 billion in January-May 2026, up 66.1% year-on-year. Their share in total exports rose to 62.1%. The largest local export partners were China at USD 317.4 million, Russia at USD 229.0 million and Türkiye at USD 207.2 million.
The largest local export product groups were petroleum and petroleum products at USD 352.2 million, precious-metal ores and concentrates at USD 255.6 million, ferroalloys at USD 130.8 million, copper ores and concentrates at USD 112.3 million, and natural grape wines at USD 92.3 million.
Why this matters for Georgia
For Georgia, economic growth is an important result, but economic transformation is a more important task. High growth gives the country resources, but structural change determines how sustainable those resources will be in the future.
If growth remains dependent on a few sectors, imports, re-exports and commodity exports, the economy will be fast but vulnerable. If growth is combined with local value, diversified exports, digital services, logistics services, technology-based production, quality standards and professional talent, the economy will truly change.
The 2026 data are important because they show opportunity, but not a guarantee. The digital sector is growing, transport is strengthening and local exports are rising. The main task now is to connect these three directions – so that digital knowledge supports logistics, logistics supports exports and exports become a source of local production and business growth.
BTUAI assessment
BTUAI assesses that the first 2026 data show that Georgia’s economy is not only growing – it is partially changing. But the transformation is not yet deep enough for the country to automatically shift into a more sustainable economic model.
The most positive signs are rapid ICT growth, stronger transport and storage, export growth and the rising share of local exports. The most important risks are the high trade deficit, import dependence, the large role of vehicles, commodity concentration in local exports and weakness in several traditional sectors.
BTUAI assesses that Georgia’s next stage should be a transition from growth to transformation. This means economic policy and business should think not only about maintaining high growth, but also about changing the sources of growth. The country needs more local value, better data, diversified exports, digital productivity, stronger logistics services and education that supplies talent to the new economy.
Economic growth gives Georgia a chance. Economic transformation will decide how well the country uses that chance.
Article identification
Title: Is Georgia’s Economy Growing or Changing? What the First 2026 Data Reveal
Platform: BTUAI.ge
Country: Georgia
Topic: Economic growth, structural change, external trade, local exports, ICT, transport
Period: Q1 2026; January-May 2026
Languages: Georgian and English
Methodology
This article was prepared through an analytical reading of Georgia’s official 2026 economic data. It uses three main source blocks: Q1 2026 gross domestic product, January-May 2026 external merchandise trade and January-May 2026 local exports. The analysis assesses whether economic growth differs from structural transformation and what signs appear in sectoral, trade and export data.
Limitations
This material is analytical and educational in nature. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal or tax advice. Before making a specific decision, consultation with a relevant specialist is recommended.
The data used are preliminary and may be revised. External trade data do not include undeclared or unorganized trade and commodity flows that are not covered by external trade statistics under international methodology.
Sources
National Statistics Office of Georgia – Gross Domestic Product of Georgia, Q1 2026.
National Statistics Office of Georgia – External Merchandise Trade of Georgia, January-May 2026.
National Statistics Office of Georgia – Local Exports of Georgia, January-May 2026.
BTUAI Research Team – analytical processing and interpretation in Georgia’s context.
FAQ
Are economic growth and economic transformation the same?
No. Growth means the economy is expanding. Transformation means that sectors, sources of value, export structure and productivity are changing inside the economy.
What shows that Georgia’s economy is changing?
ICT growth of 36.0%, transport growth of 18.0% and local export growth of 66.1% indicate that new dynamics are emerging inside the economy.
What shows that the economy remains vulnerable?
A high trade deficit, import dependence, the large role of vehicles and the concentration of local exports in a few commodity groups.
Why are local exports important?
Local exports better show value created or significantly transformed inside the country than total exports, which also include re-exports.
What should be the next task?
Deepening the sources of growth: diversified exports, local production, digital productivity, logistics services, quality standards and professional education.
Keywords
Georgia economy 2026; structural change Georgia; GDP 2026; local exports Georgia; Georgia trade 2026; ICT growth Georgia; transport and logistics Georgia; trade deficit Georgia; local value creation; BTUAI; Business and Technology University.
Citation format
BTUAI Research Team. “Is Georgia’s Economy Growing or Changing? What the First 2026 Data Reveal.” Business and Technology University, BTUAI.ge, 2026.
Authorship and BTUAI standard footer
Prepared by the academic team of Business and Technology University and the BTUAI Research Team.
Tbilisi, Georgia
BTUAI is an analytical platform of Business and Technology University that studies the impact of artificial intelligence, digital transformation, innovation, startup ecosystems, data analytics and emerging technologies on business, the economy, education and society. BTUAI materials are designed to explain complex technological and economic changes in a clear, reliable and Georgia-focused way.