Georgia’s first 2026 economic data present a strong headline figure: in the first quarter of 2026, real GDP increased by 9.0% year-on-year, while GDP at current prices reached GEL 24.8 billion. This means that economic activity remains high and the country continues to grow rapidly. But 9% growth alone is not enough to answer the more important question: how sustainable, broad-based and high-quality is this growth?
Georgia’s January-May 2026 external trade data show positive movement on the export side as well. Goods exports increased by 19.8% and reached USD 3.11 billion, while imports declined by 1.9% to USD 7.33 billion. However, the trade deficit remained high at USD 4.22 billion, equal to 40.5% of total trade turnover. This means that Georgia is growing, but still under conditions of high import dependence.
The most important structural signal appears in local exports. In January-May 2026, local exports – exports excluding re-exports – increased by 66.1% and reached USD 1.93 billion. Their share in total exports rose to 62.1%, compared with 44.8% in the same period of 2025. This is a significant change: export growth is not only linked to goods movement, but increasingly to value created or significantly transformed inside the country.
BTU researchers assess that the key question in Georgia’s 2026 economic picture is whether this is simply a continuation of rapid growth or the beginning of a more meaningful shift – toward stronger local exports, digital sectors, transport, logistics and services. The answer to this question will determine whether Georgia remains an economy that grows quickly but is highly tied to imports and re-exports, or whether it can build a more sustainable model based on local value.
Main analysis
Georgia’s 9% growth is not only a strong macroeconomic indicator. It is a signal that several important sources are active at the same time: services, trade, transport, financial activity, tourism-related sectors and information and communication. But every high-growth period requires a second question: what is driving it, and how durable is this energy?
The sectoral picture of Q1 2026 shows that growth is fastest in areas linked to knowledge, services, movement and digital infrastructure. Information and communication grew by 36.0% and accounted for 10.4% of GDP. This is a significant signal: digital and technology services in Georgia are no longer only a future opportunity; they are already one of the major sources of growth.
Transport and storage grew by 18.0%, showing that Georgia’s geographic position is gaining greater economic importance. The Middle Corridor, regional freight, warehouses, customs procedures, re-exports and logistics services may become the space where the country moves beyond being only a transit route and begins to create higher-value services. But for that to happen, transport growth must evolve into a data-driven, quality-oriented and service-rich logistics model.
Trade remains the largest sector of the economy. In Q1 2026, wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles accounted for 13.2% of GDP. This shows that goods movement, imports, domestic consumption and re-export-related activity remain central to the economy. But the large share of trade should be read in two ways: it shows growth momentum, but also signals that the economy still depends significantly on importing, distributing and reselling goods.
External trade data reinforce this picture. In January-May, trade turnover reached USD 10.44 billion, but most of this turnover still came from imports. Export growth is a positive signal, especially because imports declined slightly. However, the trade deficit of USD 4.22 billion means that the economy’s main needs continue to be covered largely by external supply.
The role of vehicles is especially important. In January-May 2026, motor cars were the largest export category at USD 734.6 million, although this category declined by 24.6% year-on-year. In imports, motor cars remained the leading category at USD 1.25 billion, accounting for 17.1% of total imports. This means that the vehicle market and re-export remain one of the main pillars of Georgia’s external trade, but also a vulnerable sector: changes in global demand, regulations, customs rules or partner countries can quickly affect the overall trade picture.
In this context, the jump in local exports is especially important. While total export growth can often be influenced by re-export dynamics, local exports better show what is being created within the country. In January-May 2026, local exports rose to USD 1.93 billion and accounted for 62.1% of total exports. This means that the weight of local value inside exports has increased.
Still, this requires careful interpretation. Local export growth does not automatically mean growth in high-tech or diversified manufacturing. The largest local export category is petroleum and petroleum products at USD 352.2 million, followed by precious-metal ores and concentrates at USD 255.6 million, ferroalloys at USD 130.8 million, and copper ores and concentrates at USD 112.3 million. This shows that local export growth remains strongly connected to resource and commodity groups.
Therefore, the main task beyond 9% growth is to understand the quality of growth. If the country looks only at the headline number, it may miss structural risks: import dependence, trade deficit, concentration of exports in a few commodity groups, high dependence on vehicles and decline signals in agriculture and construction. If the data are read more deeply, they also reveal opportunity: growth in ICT, stronger transport, expanding local exports and a broader logistics role can become foundations of a new economic model.
Key findings
The first 2026 data show that Georgia’s economy is growing at a strong pace, but different types of dynamics exist inside that growth. Growth in services, trade, transport, finance and ICT is positive, while declines in construction and agriculture indicate that economic activity is not strengthening evenly across all sectors.
Export growth of 19.8% is an important signal, but the high trade deficit shows that the country remains more dependent on imports than on a broad export base. This is especially important because vehicles continue to play a large role in both exports and imports.
The 66.1% rise in local exports is the strongest structural signal. It may indicate stronger local value creation, but the composition of local exports shows that a large share still comes from petroleum products, ores, ferroalloys and other commodity groups. The next stage should therefore be diversification of local exports and strengthening higher-value directions.
Georgia’s main task is to ensure that 9% growth does not remain only a macroeconomic success. It should translate into more productive businesses, more sustainable exports, stronger logistics services, a deeper digital sector and realistic growth in local production.
Data and evidence base
In Q1 2026, Georgia’s GDP at current prices reached GEL 24.77 billion, while real growth was 9.0%. GDP per capita at current prices was GEL 6,286, or USD 2,329. The GDP deflator changed by 2.3%.
The highest real growth by sector was recorded in information and communication at 36.0%, transport and storage at 18.0%, arts, entertainment and recreation at 14.5%, healthcare and social services at 12.6%, accommodation and food services at 12.4%, and financial and insurance activities at 11.7%. Declines were recorded in agriculture at -3.3% and construction at -2.0%.
In January-May 2026, external trade turnover reached USD 10.44 billion. Exports amounted to USD 3.11 billion, imports to USD 7.33 billion, and the trade deficit to USD 4.22 billion. Exports increased by 19.8%, while imports declined by 1.9% year-on-year.
The top export partners were Kyrgyzstan at USD 355.2 million, China at USD 327.5 million and Azerbaijan at USD 269.3 million. The top import partners were Türkiye at USD 1.16 billion, Russia at USD 983.4 million and China at USD 849.7 million.
Local exports reached USD 1.93 billion in January-May 2026, up 66.1% year-on-year. Their share in total exports rose to 62.1%. The largest local export partners were China at USD 317.4 million, Russia at USD 229.0 million and Türkiye at USD 207.2 million.
Why this matters for Georgia
For Georgia, the main question beyond 9% growth is economic sustainability. High growth matters, but if it does not become productivity growth, local value creation, export diversification and higher-quality jobs, its effect may be temporary.
It is especially important for the sources of growth to spread more widely. ICT, transport and financial services show strong signals today, but agriculture, construction and parts of local production need new policy, technological upgrading and better market connection.
Local exports can become one of the main quality indicators of Georgia’s economy. If this growth continues and spreads into more diverse sectors, the country can partially reduce import dependence and build a stronger export base. But if growth remains concentrated in a few raw materials, ores or commodity groups, the economy will remain vulnerable to prices, global demand and external shocks.
BTUAI assessment
BTUAI assesses that the 2026 data create a window of opportunity for Georgia’s economy. The 9% growth rate, export expansion and sharp rise in local exports show that economic energy exists. But this energy still needs to become a more sustainable and broad-based economic system.
Georgia’s main task is to improve the quality of growth. This means creating more local value, relying less only on imports and re-exports, strengthening sectors where knowledge and technology matter, and turning the logistics function into a model based on services, data and quality.
BTUAI assesses that the next stage of Georgia’s economic policy should not only be maintaining the growth rate, but changing the structure of growth. The country should identify where real value is created, where dependence is excessive, where business needs support, where export diversification is possible and how ICT, transport, education and local production can be connected into one development model.
Nine-percent growth is a strong result. But the future of the economy will depend not only on this number, but on what remains after it: more productive companies, stronger local exports, a safer trade model and a more competitive Georgian economy.
Article identification
Title: Beyond 9% Growth: What Georgia Should Consider from the Latest Economy, Trade and Export Data
Platform: BTUAI.ge
Country: Georgia
Topic: Economic growth, GDP, external trade, local exports, quality of growth
Period: Q1 2026; January-May 2026
Languages: Georgian and English
Methodology
This article was prepared through an analytical reading of Georgia’s official 2026 economic statistics. It uses three main data blocks: Q1 2026 gross domestic product, January-May 2026 external merchandise trade and January-May 2026 local exports. The analysis assesses not only the growth rate, but also the sources of growth, sectoral structure, trade balance, the share of local exports and the sustainability of the economic model.
Limitations
This material is analytical and educational in nature. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal or tax advice. Before making a specific decision, consultation with a relevant specialist is recommended.
The data used are preliminary and may be revised. External trade data do not include undeclared or unorganized trade and commodity flows that are not covered by external trade statistics under international methodology.
Sources
National Statistics Office of Georgia – Gross Domestic Product of Georgia, Q1 2026.
National Statistics Office of Georgia – External Merchandise Trade of Georgia, January-May 2026.
National Statistics Office of Georgia – Local Exports of Georgia, January-May 2026.
BTUAI Research Team – analytical processing and interpretation in Georgia’s context.
FAQ
Why is 9% growth important?
It shows that economic activity is high and that services, transport, trade, finance and ICT are working strongly.
Why should we look beyond the headline growth rate?
Because high growth can be temporary if it is not based on productivity, diversified exports and local value.
What is the most important signal from trade?
Exports increased and imports declined, but the trade deficit remains high. This means the economy still depends strongly on imports.
Why does local export growth matter?
Local exports better show value created or significantly transformed inside the country. Their 66.1% growth may be a signal of structural improvement.
What is the main risk?
The main risk is that growth remains concentrated in a few sectors and commodity groups while the country continues to operate with a high trade deficit.
What should business consider?
Businesses should improve productivity, quality, export capacity and data analysis, and avoid remaining only in a model of reselling imported products.
Keywords
Georgia GDP 2026; Georgia economic growth; Georgia trade 2026; local exports Georgia; trade deficit Georgia; ICT Georgia; transport and logistics Georgia; local value creation; export diversification; BTUAI; Business and Technology University.
Citation format
BTUAI Research Team. “Beyond 9% Growth: What Georgia Should Consider from the Latest Economy, Trade and Export Data.” Business and Technology University, BTUAI.ge, 2026.
Authorship and BTUAI standard footer
Prepared by the academic team of Business and Technology University and the BTUAI Research Team.
Tbilisi, Georgia
BTUAI is an analytical platform of Business and Technology University that studies the impact of artificial intelligence, digital transformation, innovation, startup ecosystems, data analytics and emerging technologies on business, the economy, education and society. BTUAI materials are designed to explain complex technological and economic changes in a clear, reliable and Georgia-focused way.