Georgia’s first 2026 economic data show a dual picture. On the one hand, the economy continues to grow rapidly: in the first quarter of 2026, real GDP increased by 9.0% year-on-year, while GDP at current prices reached GEL 24.8 billion. On the other hand, external trade shows that Georgia’s economic model remains strongly connected to imports, vehicle re-exports, transit, services and a limited number of large export categories.
In January-May 2026, Georgia’s external merchandise trade reached USD 10.44 billion, up 3.7% compared with the same period of the previous year. Exports increased by 19.8% and reached USD 3.11 billion, while imports declined by 1.9% to USD 7.33 billion. The trade deficit remained high at USD 4.22 billion, equal to 40.5% of total trade turnover.
The most interesting change appears in local exports. In January-May 2026, local exports – exports excluding re-exports – increased by 66.1% and reached USD 1.93 billion. Their share in total exports rose to 62.1%. This is an important signal because the key question for Georgia’s economy is no longer only whether exports are growing. The more important question is how much of that growth is connected to local value, production, processing or domestic resource use.
BTU researchers assess that the 2026 data show strong economic energy, but the quality of growth requires deeper analysis. Information and communication, transport and storage, financial services, trade and tourism-related activities are growing quickly. However, construction declined, agriculture remains in negative territory and external trade is still highly dependent on imports and the large role of vehicles.
Georgia’s main task is to turn high growth into a more sustainable economic model based on local value, stronger productivity and lower vulnerability.
Main analysis
The 9.0% real GDP growth recorded in the first quarter of 2026 is a very strong headline indicator. For a small open economy, this pace means that demand, services, trade, financial activity, transport and the digital economy remain active. But high growth does not always mean the same thing. It can be driven by productivity gains, domestic investment, stronger exports, re-exports, tourism effects, public spending, financial activity or temporary acceleration in several sectors.
The information and communication sector stands out in the 2026 data, with real growth of 36.0%. This is one of the most important signals: digital and technology-related services have become a major source of growth in Georgia’s economy. The sector’s share in GDP reached 10.4%, making it one of the largest areas after trade.
Transport and storage grew by 18.0%, showing that Georgia’s geographic and logistics role is becoming more visible in economic outcomes. This is directly linked to the Middle Corridor, regional freight, re-exports, warehousing, customs services and logistics infrastructure. But the key question is whether Georgia is only generating transit income or building higher-value services such as data management, quality control, regional distribution, financial services and insurance.
Trade remains the largest sector in Georgia’s economy. In the first quarter of 2026, wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles accounted for 13.2% of GDP, while real growth in the sector was 5.5%. This means that consumer demand and goods movement remain major pillars of economic activity. At the same time, the large share of trade also shows that the economy still depends heavily on imports, re-exports and distribution.
External trade data make this picture clearer. In January-May 2026, imports accounted for 70.2% of total trade turnover, while exports accounted for 29.8%. Although exports increased by 19.8% and imports declined slightly, the trade deficit remains high. This means that Georgia’s growth is still strongly connected to external supply, imported vehicles, energy products, medicines, technology goods and other imported products.
Vehicles remain especially important in external trade. In January-May 2026, motor cars were Georgia’s largest export category, at USD 734.6 million, although exports of this category declined by 24.6% year-on-year. Motor cars were also the largest import category, at USD 1.25 billion, or 17.1% of total imports. This shows that the vehicle sector remains one of the main engines of Georgia’s trade, but also a zone of high sensitivity: changes in regulation, re-export destinations, global demand and import sources can quickly affect the overall trade picture.
The growth of local exports is the most important positive signal in this context. While total export growth may often be influenced by re-exports, local exports provide a clearer view of value created or significantly transformed inside the country. In January-May 2026, the 66.1% increase in local exports and their rise to 62.1% of total exports suggest a potential structural shift within Georgia’s export base.
However, this growth must also be read carefully. The largest local export category was petroleum and petroleum products, at USD 352.2 million, accounting for 18.3% of local exports. It was followed by precious-metal ores and concentrates at USD 255.6 million, ferroalloys at USD 130.8 million and copper ores and concentrates at USD 112.3 million. This means that a significant part of local export growth remains connected to resources, raw materials and commodity-related groups.
This is not negative, but it is not enough. A more sustainable export model for Georgia would be one in which growth comes not only from raw or semi-processed goods, but also from brands, technology, design, services, processing, quality standards and knowledge. This is where the main question appears: can Georgia use local export growth as a bridge toward higher value added?
Key findings
The 2026 data show that Georgia’s economy is growing quickly, but its growth model is not yet fully balanced. Economic activity is strong in services, trade, transport, finance and ICT, while agriculture and construction are in decline. This suggests that growth momentum is not distributed evenly across sectors.
In external trade, the positive signal is export growth of 19.8% and import decline of 1.9%, but the trade deficit remains high. Georgia still buys much more than it sells, and its economic resilience depends on whether it can strengthen local production, services and higher-quality exports.
The 66.1% increase in local exports is the most important structural signal. It shows that the share of exports linked more directly to local value creation has increased. At the same time, local exports remain concentrated in a few major product groups, including petroleum products, ores, ferroalloys and mineral waters.
Georgia’s new economic picture is not only one of rapid growth. It is a transitional picture: the country is growing fast, but it must decide whether this growth will remain strongly tied to trade and re-exports or become a deeper economic model based on knowledge, technology, logistics services and local value.
Data and evidence base
In the first quarter of 2026, GDP at current prices reached GEL 24.77 billion, while real GDP growth was 9.0%. GDP per capita was GEL 6,286, or USD 2,329. The GDP deflator changed by 2.3%.
By sector, the highest real growth was recorded in information and communication at 36.0%, transport and storage at 18.0%, arts, entertainment and recreation at 14.5%, healthcare and social services at 12.6%, accommodation and food services at 12.4%, and financial and insurance activities at 11.7%. Declines were recorded in agriculture at -3.3% and construction at -2.0%.
In January-May 2026, Georgia’s external trade turnover reached USD 10.44 billion. Exports amounted to USD 3.11 billion, imports to USD 7.33 billion, and the trade deficit to USD 4.22 billion. Exports increased by 19.8%, while imports declined by 1.9%.
The top export partner countries were Kyrgyzstan at USD 355.2 million, China at USD 327.5 million and Azerbaijan at USD 269.3 million. The top import partner countries were Türkiye at USD 1.16 billion, Russia at USD 983.4 million and China at USD 849.7 million.
Local exports reached USD 1.93 billion in January-May 2026, up 66.1% year-on-year. Their share in total exports rose to 62.1%. The largest local export partner countries were China at USD 317.4 million, Russia at USD 229.0 million and Türkiye at USD 207.2 million.
Why this matters for Georgia
These data matter because they show not only the pace of growth, but also the structural direction of the economy. Georgia is growing quickly, but the quality of growth depends on the development of local exports, the role of transport and logistics, the ability of the ICT sector to create higher value and the reduction of import dependence.
If local export growth remains concentrated in a few commodity groups, the economy will remain vulnerable to prices, global demand and geopolitical shifts. If local export growth expands into processing, technology services, agro-industry, light manufacturing, quality FMCG brands, logistics services and knowledge exports, then the 2026 data may mark the beginning of a more sustainable economic model.
For Georgia, it is especially important to view transport, ICT and local exports together. These three directions can form a new economic combination for the country: digital services, regional connectivity and local value. But this requires data-driven policy, business productivity, professional education, export support and quality standards.
BTUAI assessment
BTUAI assesses that Georgia’s first 2026 economic data are a strong but insufficient signal. Strong – because 9.0% GDP growth, export expansion and the jump in local exports show clear economic energy. Insufficient – because high growth does not automatically mean sustainable development.
Georgia’s main challenge is the quality of growth. The economy needs to reduce its heavy dependence on imports and re-exports without losing the benefits of openness. Local export growth should move toward more diversified, higher-value and knowledge-based activities. Logistics should create not only transit income, but services, data, certification and regional distribution. ICT should become not only a fast-growing sector, but also a productivity layer for the whole economy.
The right question today is: how can Georgia turn high growth into sustainable economic opportunity? The answer lies in local value creation, export diversification, technological productivity, quality standards, human capital and data-based decision-making.
Article identification
Title: Georgia’s New Economic Picture: Growth, Trade and Local Exports in 2026
Platform: BTUAI.ge
Country: Georgia
Topic: Economy, external trade, local exports, quality of growth, sectoral structure
Period: Q1 2026; January-May 2026
Languages: Georgian and English
Methodology
This article was prepared through an analytical reading of official 2026 economic statistics. It uses three core data blocks: Georgia’s Q1 2026 gross domestic product, January-May 2026 external merchandise trade and January-May 2026 local exports. The analysis combines sectoral growth, trade dynamics, partner countries, commodity groups, the share of local exports and a structural assessment of Georgia’s economic model.
Limitations
This material is analytical and educational in nature. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal or tax advice. Before making a specific decision, consultation with a relevant specialist is recommended.
The data used are preliminary and may be revised. External trade data do not include undeclared trade, unorganized trade or commodity flows that are not covered by external trade statistics under international methodology.
Sources
National Statistics Office of Georgia – Gross Domestic Product of Georgia, Q1 2026.
National Statistics Office of Georgia – External Merchandise Trade of Georgia, January-May 2026.
National Statistics Office of Georgia – Local Exports of Georgia, January-May 2026.
BTUAI Research Team – analytical processing and interpretation in Georgia’s context.
FAQ
What does Georgia’s 9.0% GDP growth in Q1 2026 show?
It shows that economic activity remains strong, especially in services, trade, transport, finance and information and communication.
Why is GDP growth alone not enough?
Because the quality of growth depends on which sectors drive it, how much local value is created, how diversified exports are and how vulnerable the economy remains.
What are local exports?
Local exports are exports excluding re-exports. They include goods produced in the country or goods imported from abroad that underwent substantial transformation or significant value increase in Georgia.
Why is the 66.1% increase in local exports important?
It shows that the share of exports more directly linked to local value creation has increased.
What is the main risk?
The main risk is that growth remains concentrated in a few sectors and commodity groups, while the economy continues to operate with high import dependence and a large trade deficit.
What should business do?
Businesses should measure productivity, organize data, search for new export markets, improve quality, add services and avoid remaining only resellers or low-value producers.
Keywords
Georgia GDP 2026; Georgia trade 2026; local exports Georgia; economic growth Georgia; trade deficit Georgia; ICT Georgia; transport Georgia; local value creation; external trade Georgia; BTUAI; Business and Technology University.
Citation format
BTUAI Research Team. “Georgia’s New Economic Picture: Growth, Trade and Local Exports in 2026.” Business and Technology University, BTUAI.ge, 2026.
Authorship and BTUAI standard footer
Prepared by the academic team of Business and Technology University and the BTUAI Research Team.
Tbilisi, Georgia
BTUAI is an analytical platform of Business and Technology University that studies the impact of artificial intelligence, digital transformation, innovation, startup ecosystems, data analytics and emerging technologies on business, the economy, education and society. BTUAI materials are designed to explain complex technological and economic changes in a clear, reliable and Georgia-focused way.