The Potential for Georgia’s Economic Growth: How Fast Can We Catch Up with Others?

Economic growth is a fundamental factor in the development of any country, and this principle applies universally. History shows that countries like China, Japan, and South Korea have become global economic powerhouses through rapid and sustained growth. China maintained annual growth rates exceeding 10% for decades, allowing it to rise from poverty to a global leader in technology. Japan, through its post-war “economic miracle,” transformed into an industrial giant. Similarly, Eastern European countries, such as Poland, achieved significant progress through decades of stable growth, overcoming the challenges of transitioning economies and advancing rapidly.

As of 2024, Georgia’s GDP per capita stands at $8.9 thousand. In comparison, Bulgaria’s is $17 thousand, Poland’s is $23.6 thousand, and Germany’s is $55.5 thousand (source: IMF). This analysis examines how quickly Georgia could reach these countries’ current levels under the assumption of a fixed exchange rate. This means that if the exchange rate remains constant and the economies of these countries remain “frozen,” with no further growth, how long would it take for Georgia to catch up?

If Georgia’s economy grows by 5% annually, it will take 13 years to match Bulgaria’s current GDP per capita, 20 years to reach Poland’s level, and 36 years to catch up with Germany. At a 7% growth rate, Georgia could reach Bulgaria’s level in 10 years, Poland’s in 15 years, and Germany’s in 25 years. At a 10% growth rate, Georgia could match Bulgaria in just 7 years, Poland in 10 years, and Germany in 18 years. However, if Georgia grows at a slower rate, say 2-3% annually, it could take several decades just to catch up with today’s Eastern European countries.

Achieving high economic growth requires creating an environment conducive to attracting investments and expanding exports. This entails fostering innovation, improving the education system, and reducing corruption. Modernizing infrastructure and integrating into international markets are also critical elements that ensure economic stability and sustained high growth rates.

While the prospects for economic growth open significant opportunities for Georgia, maintaining high growth over the long term and achieving economic convergence with other nations is a process that takes decades. In many cases, catching up economically becomes an intergenerational effort, requiring consistent and forward-looking strategies that also take future generations’ interests into account.